WHO Expecting to Designate Flu Outbreak as Pandemic

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WHO Expecting to Designate Flu Outbreak as Pandemic (Update1)

By Tom Randall and Dermot Doherty

May 3 (Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization may declare the outbreak of

H1N1 influenza a pandemic even as many cases of swine flu show symptoms no more

severe than seasonal flu, health officials said.

The WHO raised its six-tier alert to 5 on April 29 and a further elevation would

signal a pandemic, alerting governments to enact plans to curb the disease.

Ireland became the 17th country yesterday to confirm swine flu and the new virus

may be spreading in five nations among people unconnected to Mexico, where cases

were first reported.

" At this stage we have to expect that phase 6 will be reached; we have to hope

that it won't be, " , the Geneva-based agency's director of global

alert and response, said at a news conference yesterday. " I would still propose

that a pandemic is imminent. "

Still, the WHO isn't seeing sustained community transmission outside of North

America for the virus, he said.

International health experts said the world is now closer to another influenza

pandemic than at any time since 1968, when the last of the previous century's

three pandemics occurred. The WHO hasn't had a single phase 6 alert since it

introduced the six-level system in 2005. Before this week, the warning had been

at phase 3 since 2007, when it was elevated for an outbreak of avian flu,

according to the WHO Web site.

Tracked One Week

In little more than a week, world health authorities have tracked the emergence

of the flu from an outbreak in Mexico and a few cases in Texas and California to

more than 650 confirmed illness in 17 countries across the globe.

The virus has now struck more people in that time than H5N1 avian influenza,

with 421 confirmed cases, has in the past six years. Still, while bird flu has

killed almost two-thirds of its victims, fatalities from swine flu are less than

3 percent of those infected, according to WHO data.

The pathogen has shuttered schools and offices in Mexico and the U.S., the next

hardest hit country, stirred governments to use their treatment stockpiles, and

spurred a quest for a vaccine before the beginning of the next flu season.

The number of confirmed dead from the H1N1 virus in Mexico is 19, up from 16 on

May 1, said Mexico's health minister Cordova at a news conference in Mexico

City. Cordova said the number of Mexico's confirmed cases, including the deaths,

rose to 473 from 443, as laboratories in the country work through a backlog of

samples.

Campaigning Ban

The government put in place a ban on public campaigning for the July 5 mid-term

elections and Mexico City is considering extending its school closures an extra

week.

" Mexico has been living up to its duty " to fight the disease, Cordova said.

" We are in a stabilization phase, " he said. " Still, it is too soon to say we are

past the most complicated moment. "

The WHO's statistics, which lag reports by national and local agencies,

confirmed 397 cases in Mexico and 658 worldwide. It listed illnesses in the

U.S., Canada, the U.K., Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland,

Spain, Israel, Hong Kong, New Zealand, France, South Korea and Costa Rica.

The virus is already at pandemic level, according to Ira Longini, a researcher

at the University of Washington in Seattle who advises the U.S. government on

flu.

" The definition of a pandemic is that the new virus has spread to several

countries and is transmissible, " Longini said in an interview yesterday. " It's

hard to imagine it's not going to continue to spread in some form. "

Share Information

Ireland yesterday confirmed is first case, a man who had recently returned from

a trip to Mexico, according to a statement last night from Tony Holohan, chief

medical officer of the Department of Heath and Children.

U.S. President Barack Obama spoke yesterday by telephone with Mexican President

Felipe Calderon to share information about their countries' efforts to limit the

spread of the influenza. They stressed the importance of continuing close

cooperation between their governments, according to a White House statement.

" This is a new strain of the influenza virus, and because we haven't developed

an immunity to it, it has more potential to cause us harm, " Obama said yesterday

in his weekly radio and Internet address. " This creates the potential for a

pandemic, which is why we are acting quickly and aggressively. "

Expanding Wave

Obama has asked U.S. lawmakers for $1.5 billion to battle the outbreak and

prepare for it to resurface during flu season.

Still, he said the virus hasn't been as virulent in the U.S. as in Mexico and

antiviral treatments have shown to be effective.

The U.K., U.S., Germany, Canada and Spain each confirmed cases in people who

didn't travel to Mexico. The expanding wave of sickness has been similar to

seasonal flu, though health authorities are taking no chances with a virus that

may flash across the globe, infecting a population with no natural immunity,

said the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

New York officials said they suspect more than 1,000 cases, so many that the

government has stopped testing all but the sickest there.

Evidence suggests " transmission is widespread, and that less severe illness is

common, " the Atlanta-based CDC said in a report May 1. In Mexico " a large number

of undetected cases of illness might exist in persons seeking care in

primary-care settings or not seeking care at all, " the CDC report said.

Schools Close

In the U.S., at least 433 schools had closed in 17 states, leaving parents to

find other arrangements for 245,449 students, according to the Education

Department. Five colleges closed, the department said in an e-mail.

The CDC raised its flu count yesterday to 160 cases in 21 states, including the

only U.S. fatality, a 22-month-old child who died April 27 at a Houston

hospital. The Boston Globe reported that New Hampshire became the 22nd U.S.

state with an illness after authorities confirmed its first H1N1 infection,

which had been reported April 30 as probable.

Batches of seed virus are being developed for potential vaccine production,

according to WHO. Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA, Baxter International Inc. of

Deerfield, Illinois, and GlaxoKline Plc of London are talking with world

health authorities about producing shots, the agency said.

Production of vaccines against the new H1N1 influenza will be completed " in

parallel with or after the seasonal vaccine is produced, " , chief of

the flu division at the CDC's Center for Immunization and Respiratory Disease,

said at a news conference in Atlanta on May 1.

The three main seasonal flu strains -- H3N2, H1N1 and type- B -- cause 250,000

to 500,000 deaths a year globally, according to WHO. The new flu's symptoms are

similar, including fever and coughing, nausea and vomiting, according to the

CDC.

Authorities advised hand-washing, hygiene and staying home if sick as the most

effective ways to control the outbreak.

Last Updated: May 3, 2009 01:20 EDT

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