Re: Flu pandemic could cost economy billions: study

[Guest guest]

The most interesting quote in this article for me is " A total of 54

per cent of workers surveyed said they would be uncomfortable going to

work if there was a pandemic in their city or town, for fears of

becoming sick themselves, the survey showed. "

As long-time readers of this group will recall, I have on several

occasions criticized official predictions of the effects of an

influenza pandemic where they use 10 or 20 percent absenteeism to make

their official projections.

Even this latest survey is flawed in my opinion. People are being

surveyed about a situation beyond their personal experience and about

which they can hardly imagine. No one can tell me that when a highly

contagious, nearly always fatal strain of flu races through a

community, and when people realize that most of those who get it are

dying within a week, that they will opt to risk getting it themselves

by going to work. Even the slow-witted will notice that 55% of their

colleagues decided it was too dangerous to go to work and it will

finally dawn on them that there is a real danger in the air.

Absenteeism will be very nearly 100% within days or a few weeks at

most. And this will include grocery clerks, utility workers, hospital

staff, police, pharmacy staff, undertakers, emergency personnel, you

name it. It is core human nature to avoid risking near-certain death

by whatever means necessary.

Those who get sick and survive will become the new workforce but who

can predict what the world will look like post-pandemic? It seems

likely that there will be a period of total chaos and anarchy when the

panicked multitudes realize that everything has shut down and they

begin the scramble for scarce resources. There is no telling how long

this could last, but it could easily be months.

From that point, I seriously doubt that there will be a rapid or

orderly return to business as usual. Will there even be jobs to go

back to once order is restored? The economic infrastructure depends

upon there being a workforce of a certain size and consumer spending

of a certain magnitude. But a quarter to half of the population is

suddenly gone and the rest are in deep shock or barricaded in their

homes. As one business after another collapses, and more and more

people have no income or spending power, the effect snowballs until

the collapse becomes complete.

OK, that is worst case. But do you really think that can't happen?

Do you have any plans for if it does? Does the government have plans

for if it does, since it is working on the assumption that there will

only be a short term workforce shortage of 10-20%?

Good luck!

>

> Flu pandemic could cost economy billions: study

> CanWest News Service

> OTTAWA — More than half of Canadian industry employees may not go to

> work during an influenza pandemic, according to a national survey

> released by the University of Western Ontario on Wednesday.

>

> A total of 54 per cent of workers surveyed said they would be

> uncomfortable going to work if there was a pandemic in their city or

> town, for fears of becoming sick themselves, the survey showed. The

> loss of such a workforce could result in a " domino effect " _on other

> businesses and end up costing the Canadian economy $9 billion, said

> Guy Holburn of UWO's Ivey School of Business.

>

> " This survey indicates that a pandemic flu outbreak would create an

> immediate and substantial negative impact on the economy, caused by

> high levels of absenteeism amongst critical infrastructure workers, "

> said Holburn in a press release.

>

> " The impact of this level of absenteeism in these critical industries

> would have a significant negative multiplier effect on the short-term

> performance of most other businesses, and $9 billion is likely a

> conservative estimate. "

>

> The results are from a telephone and online survey conducted with

> 2,000 workers from service sectors, which included municipal,

> transportation, banking, communication and medical and food industries.

>

> These sectors make up 20 per cent of the Canadian economy and include

> three million people.

>

> Sponsored by GlaxoKline and conducted by Leger Marketing, the

> survey showed more than 90 per cent of respondents said they would

> continue to go to work if they knew their employer had a preventative

> flu pandemic plan in place.

>

> The results also showed that workers who are aware of such a plan at

> their workplace are also more likely to go to work, compared to

> workers who unaware of a plan.

>

> But only 24 per cent of those surveyed said their employer had a

> pandemic plan in effect.

>

> A flu pandemic occurs three or four times a century, according to the

> survey's researchers.

> http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html

>