WHO bird flu committee report says high death rate possilbe

[Guest guest]

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061102/x110210.html

If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO

report

12:30:01 EST Nov 2, 2006

Canadian Press: HELEN BRANSWELL

(CP) - There's no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become

less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from

the World Health Organization warns.

A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last

month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which

kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would become

any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against

spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It also

reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic

birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu

drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that

the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the

scientific equivalent of a black hole.

Modern science has never seen a flu virus as nasty as H5N1, and there

is no way of knowing if the virus can become easily transmissible

among people or what an H5N1 pandemic would look like.

" It's one of those things that you hate to conjecture, " said

Perdue, an avian influenza expert and scientist with the WHO's global

influenza program.

" We just don't know enough about this virus, a whole new subtype for

humans. . . . If a new H5 enters, it could be more lethal than

anything we've ever seen in history. (But) who knows? "

" I think it's anybody's opinion because it's just so completely

unknown. "

The report noted some modelling studies suggest a highly lethal virus

could not spark a pandemic, because people who fall gravely ill

aren't walking about transmitting flu to others. " All such matters

remain difficult to predict, " the report concludes.

It also questions the wisdom of stockpiling current versions of H5N1

vaccine for later use, saying there is little evidence that a vaccine

against one variant of the virus will induce a good immune response

against even other currently circulating H5N1 viruses, let alone

future ones.

" We still don't have the data that would say that a pre-pandemic

vaccine based on one H5N1 strain would completely protect against

another, " Perdue said from Geneva.

" Although one would hope it would mitigate the effects some, we don't

have the data to show it. "

The United States and Switzerland are stockpiling current H5N1

vaccines. And several other countries - Singapore and Britain among

them - are reported to be in negotiations with vaccine maker

GlaxoKline to buy bulk lots of its H5N1 vaccine for stockpiling

purposes

[Guest guest]

Thank you for this excellent post, Don. This throws into question

all of the preparations that have been made for a bird flu pandemic.

It also says that a bird flu pandemic might be nastier than we think.

>

> http://www.cbc.ca/cp/health/061102/x110210.html

>

> If bird flu virus becomes pandemic, high death rates possible: WHO

> report

> 12:30:01 EST Nov 2, 2006

> Canadian Press: HELEN BRANSWELL

> (CP) - There's no guarantee the H5N1 avian flu virus would become

> less deadly to people if it triggers a pandemic, a new report from

> the World Health Organization warns.

>

> A group of eminent influenza scientists gathered by the WHO last

> month concluded there is no reason to believe that the virus, which

> kills roughly 60 per cent of people who become infected, would

become

> any milder if it evolves to become a pandemic strain.

>

> The report, based on that meeting, cautions governments against

> spending a lot of money to stockpile existing H5N1 vaccines. It

also

> reveals that a low level of H5N1 viruses found in wild and domestic

> birds appear to be naturally resistant to oseltamivir, the main flu

> drug being stockpiled against a future pandemic.

>

> The WHO scientist who convened the meeting cautioned, however, that

> the question of how lethal an H5N1 pandemic might be is the

> scientific equivalent of a black hole.

>

> Modern science has never seen a flu virus as nasty as H5N1, and

there

> is no way of knowing if the virus can become easily transmissible

> among people or what an H5N1 pandemic would look like.