Pandemic bird flu predicted for 2008

[Guest guest]

Ok, the guy is a PhD and the director of the well-respected Center for

Bioethics at the University of Pennsylvania, but does he know enough

about H5N1 to confidently predict that 2008 will be the year the virus

will go pandemic? I doubt it. Personally, I don't think anyone can

make predictions on this topic with a high level of confidence.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22451442/

Biggest real reason for freaking out

Anyone remember pandemic flu? This is the nasty strain of flu that is

carried by birds, but once in awhile jumps to other species, including

us. For awhile the U.S. media and government were all aflutter over

the possibility of an avian flu pandemic as a small number of human

deaths were reported in Asia, and as confirmed cases in birds spread

worldwide. But nothing happened. No plague. Everyone lost interest.

Time to get interested again.

The virus that causes avian flu is still around, killing birds and an

occasional person. It continues to mutate. Scientists tracking the

virus have seen subtle changes that make it very likely that this year

we are going to get a strain that not only goes from birds to birds

and birds to people, but also from people to people. That is when we

get the real chance of a pandemic.

The evolution of the virus says it is getting close to getting ready

to do us a lot of harm. Last year a bird flu vaccine was approved for

human use. How effective it will be or how much of it will be

available is not clear. In 2008 the nations of the world better get

ready to deal with this time bomb that has not stopped ticking.

Arthur Caplan, Ph.D., is director of the Center for Bioethics at the

University of Pennsylvania.

[Guest guest]

PhD doesn't mean he knows what he's talking about. However, the possibility cannot be entirely discounted.Don <DCFrench@...> wrote: Ok, the guy is a PhD and the director of the well-respected Center forBioethics at the University of Pennsylvania, but does he know enoughabout H5N1 to confidently predict that 2008 will be the year the viruswill go pandemic? I doubt it. Personally, I don't think anyone canmake predictions on this topic with a high level of confidence. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22451442/Biggest real reason for freaking outAnyone remember pandemic flu? This is the nasty strain of flu that iscarried by birds, but once in awhile jumps to other species, includingus. For awhile the U.S. media and government were all aflutter overthe possibility of an avian flu pandemic as a small number of humandeaths were reported in Asia, and as confirmed cases in birds spreadworldwide. But nothing happened. No plague. Everyone lost interest.Time to get interested again.The virus that causes avian flu is still around, killing birds and anoccasional person. It continues to mutate. Scientists tracking thevirus have seen subtle changes that make it very likely that this yearwe are going to get a strain that not only goes from birds to birdsand birds to people, but also from people to people. That is when weget the real

chance of a pandemic. The evolution of the virus says it is getting close to getting readyto do us a lot of harm. Last year a bird flu vaccine was approved forhuman use. How effective it will be or how much of it will beavailable is not clear. In 2008 the nations of the world better getready to deal with this time bomb that has not stopped ticking.Arthur Caplan, Ph.D., is director of the Center for Bioethics at theUniversity of Pennsylvania. . Do one thing every day that scares you. Eleanor Roosevelt