Pandemic's toll would be dire, health czar says

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 14.01.2006 08:54:51 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>Mr. Leavitt is particularly unhelpful. Where does he get the notion that this would >break out in every community at the same time? That just doesn't make any sense >at all.

he probably means: all(many) cities with airports. I read this with the EpiCast prediction too.

Of course, some villages etc. will have some weeks more time,

not all cities with airports will be affected, some will be immun etc.

He's a bit unprecise. And this assumes a worst-case-1918-like virus

[Guest guest]

there are some other dubious points in that speech:

> if a pandemic happens, it will have profound consequences

there are also mild pandemics

>the state will do all it can

certainly not

>only one h2h - case

well, a lot more are suspected

>the virus will spread quickly

not necessarily. It needn't be as contageous as the 1918-virus

>nobody is immun

huh ? _Some_ are very likely immun

>spread to USA in 30 days

well, why should it need 30days, when inside USA it will be in each community at the same time ?

>every.. needs a plan

but if we can't stop it as he seems to assume, then why even plan to stop it ?

>Cavalry is not riding in

do you still have Cavalry over there ? And aren't horses carriers too ?

Better use special ABC-units with protective cloths and please, no horses !

[Guest guest]

Pandemic's toll would be dire, health czar says

January 13, 2006

By Zicconi Vermont Press Bureau

SOUTH BURLINGTON — U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary

Leavitt traveled to Vermont Thursday to deliver a sobering message to

Vermonters about what could happen if a full-fledged avian flu

pandemic were to erupt.

If a viral strain with the strength of the so-called Spanish flu of

1918 — which killed 500,000 Americans and 40 million people

worldwide — were to break out in Vermont, nearly 200,000 people would

become ill, with about half needing medical treatment, Leavitt said.

Some 20,000 Vermonters would require hospitalization, and close to

4,000 would likely die, he said.

" Pandemics are dramatic events, " Leavitt said. " Will one happen? We

don't know. But if it does happen, it will have profound

consequences. "

The U.S. last experienced an influenza pandemic in 1968 when 34,000

deaths were recorded.

Leavitt traveled to Vermont to speak at a pandemic planning summit

sponsored by the Vermont Health Department, and to provide the state

with $650,000 to help fund its planning efforts.

He called the check a " down payment, " and promised an additional $1.3

million over the coming months.

Leavitt and Gov. then signed a proclamation assuring

the state will do all it can to prepare for an influenza pandemic.

said Vermont for months has been preparing for such a drastic

event. Thursday's summit was just one of many recent planning

sessions the state has held so local leaders can meet with state

officials to coordinate emergency response efforts, he said.

" We will do everything possible to prepare, " said. " Our

efforts can mean the difference between life and death for the people

of our state. "

The summit brought together more than 200 physicians, hospital

executives, transportation workers, business owners, town officials,

police officers, rescue squad volunteers and other first responders

to help the state prepare for how it would protect its citizens

should a pandemic sweep across the Green Mountains.

The secretary's visit was the third stop of his nationwide tour to

preach preparedness about a disease that is already known to have

killed about 120 people in southeast Asia, and appears to be

spreading west.Five people in Turkey last week were diagnosed with

the potentially deadly disease, eastern Europe's first recorded

cases. All other outbreaks have been limited to mostly rural

southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Cambodia.

Most avian flu infections in humans result from contact with infected

chickens, ducks and turkeys, often transmitted through the handling

of excrement, federal officials said.

There is only one documented case of the disease spreading from human-

to-human, and that took place only after prolonged close contact

between a mother and her infected baby, they said.

Leavitt said he travels with a consistent message for every state:

should a bird-flu pandemic occur in the U.S. the virus will spread

quickly and infect so many people nationwide that the federal

government will be unable to assist.

States will be on their own, he said.

" Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the

federal government will throw them a lifeline is tragically wrong, "

Leavitt said.

Projections show that a nationwide bird-flu pandemic with the

tenacity of Spanish flu — a virus with similar characteristics —

would infect about 90 million Americans, causing about half of them

to require hospitalization, Leavitt said.

Some 2 million would likely die, he said.

Unlike seasonal influenza that preys mostly on the weak and elderly,

the bird flu has consistently infected young and healthy southeast

Asians in their 20s and 30s, federal officials said.

" If we have a pandemic, nobody is immune, " Leavitt said.

The summit's morning hours involved a cadre of state and federal

officials outlining the possible swift and deadly nature of

pandemics — a full-fledged outbreak of bird flu in southeast Asia

would likely spread to the U.S. in just 30 days — while the afternoon

saw local officials break into small groups to both network and begin

to develop action plans.

Planning for a pandemic is very different than preparing for natural

disasters like floods or hurricanes because the virus will prevent

about 40 percent of all emergency personnel from doing their jobs,

Leavitt said.

Public safety facilities like prisons need an operational plan

designed to run with a skeleton crew, while local emergency medical

services must plan for what to do with the drastically ill when

hospitals become overcrowded and cannot handle any more patients,

Leavitt said.

" It will break out in every community at the same time, and every

community will have to take care of its own, " Leavitt said. " Every

state, every city, every town, every church, every business, every

school and every family needs a plan. That is what will ultimately

produce our readiness. "

The federal government is stockpiling bird-flu vaccine, but it is

unlikely enough can be manufactured for all 300 million Americans,

Leavitt said. And there is no assurance the vaccines will work

because viruses quickly mutate, he said.

Steve Hazelton, disaster planning director for Rutland Regional

Medical Center, said he was glad Leavitt was upfront that the federal

government would be of little help should a pandemic breakout.

That clear message from a member of President Bush's cabinet adds a

sense of urgency to the local planning process, he said.

" The federal government's calvary is not riding in here to take care

of us, so this is something we have to do on our own, " Hazelton said.

" Knowing that is going to help me carry the message back to the

hospital that we really need to be working on this. It is critical. "

http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?

AID=/20060113/NEWS/601130352/1002

[Guest guest]

Mr. Leavitt is particularly unhelpful. Where does he get the notion that this would break out in every community at the same time? That just doesn't make any sense at all.Lee <jackalope_lepus@...> wrote: Pandemic's toll would be dire, health czar saysJanuary 13, 2006 By Zicconi Vermont Press Bureau SOUTH BURLINGTON — U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Leavitt traveled to Vermont Thursday to deliver a sobering message to Vermonters about what could happen if a full-fledged avian flu pandemic were to erupt.If a viral strain with the strength of the so-called Spanish flu of 1918 — which killed 500,000 Americans and 40 million people worldwide — were to break out in Vermont, nearly 200,000 people would become ill, with about half needing medical

treatment, Leavitt said.Some 20,000 Vermonters would require hospitalization, and close to 4,000 would likely die, he said."Pandemics are dramatic events," Leavitt said. "Will one happen? We don't know. But if it does happen, it will have profound consequences."The U.S. last experienced an influenza pandemic in 1968 when 34,000 deaths were recorded.Leavitt traveled to Vermont to speak at a pandemic planning summit sponsored by the Vermont Health Department, and to provide the state with $650,000 to help fund its planning efforts.He called the check a "down payment," and promised an additional $1.3 million over the coming months.Leavitt and Gov. then signed a proclamation assuring the state will do all it can to prepare for an influenza pandemic. said Vermont for months has been preparing for such a drastic event. Thursday's summit was just one of many recent planning

sessions the state has held so local leaders can meet with state officials to coordinate emergency response efforts, he said."We will do everything possible to prepare," said. "Our efforts can mean the difference between life and death for the people of our state."The summit brought together more than 200 physicians, hospital executives, transportation workers, business owners, town officials, police officers, rescue squad volunteers and other first responders to help the state prepare for how it would protect its citizens should a pandemic sweep across the Green Mountains.The secretary's visit was the third stop of his nationwide tour to preach preparedness about a disease that is already known to have killed about 120 people in southeast Asia, and appears to be spreading west.Five people in Turkey last week were diagnosed with the potentially deadly disease, eastern Europe's first recorded cases.

All other outbreaks have been limited to mostly rural southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Cambodia.Most avian flu infections in humans result from contact with infected chickens, ducks and turkeys, often transmitted through the handling of excrement, federal officials said.There is only one documented case of the disease spreading from human-to-human, and that took place only after prolonged close contact between a mother and her infected baby, they said.Leavitt said he travels with a consistent message for every state: should a bird-flu pandemic occur in the U.S. the virus will spread quickly and infect so many people nationwide that the federal government will be unable to assist.States will be on their own, he said."Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will throw them a lifeline is tragically wrong," Leavitt said.Projections show that a

nationwide bird-flu pandemic with the tenacity of Spanish flu — a virus with similar characteristics — would infect about 90 million Americans, causing about half of them to require hospitalization, Leavitt said.Some 2 million would likely die, he said.Unlike seasonal influenza that preys mostly on the weak and elderly, the bird flu has consistently infected young and healthy southeast Asians in their 20s and 30s, federal officials said."If we have a pandemic, nobody is immune," Leavitt said.The summit's morning hours involved a cadre of state and federal officials outlining the possible swift and deadly nature of pandemics — a full-fledged outbreak of bird flu in southeast Asia would likely spread to the U.S. in just 30 days — while the afternoon saw local officials break into small groups to both network and begin to develop action plans.Planning for a pandemic is very different than preparing for

natural disasters like floods or hurricanes because the virus will prevent about 40 percent of all emergency personnel from doing their jobs, Leavitt said.Public safety facilities like prisons need an operational plan designed to run with a skeleton crew, while local emergency medical services must plan for what to do with the drastically ill when hospitals become overcrowded and cannot handle any more patients, Leavitt said."It will break out in every community at the same time, and every community will have to take care of its own," Leavitt said. "Every state, every city, every town, every church, every business, every school and every family needs a plan. That is what will ultimately produce our readiness."The federal government is stockpiling bird-flu vaccine, but it is unlikely enough can be manufactured for all 300 million Americans, Leavitt said. And there is no assurance the vaccines will work

because viruses quickly mutate, he said.Steve Hazelton, disaster planning director for Rutland Regional Medical Center, said he was glad Leavitt was upfront that the federal government would be of little help should a pandemic breakout.That clear message from a member of President Bush's cabinet adds a sense of urgency to the local planning process, he said."The federal government's calvary is not riding in here to take care of us, so this is something we have to do on our own," Hazelton said."Knowing that is going to help me carry the message back to the hospital that we really need to be working on this. It is critical."http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060113/NEWS/601130352/1002 . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Inasmuch as he seems to know very little about how disease is transmitted, I'd say he's somewhat more than unprecise.sterten@... wrote: In einer eMail vom 14.01.2006 08:54:51 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: >Mr. Leavitt is particularly unhelpful. Where does he get the notion that this would >break out in every community at the same time? That just doesn't make any sense >at all. he probably means: all(many) cities with airports. I read this with the EpiCast prediction too. Of course, some villages etc. will have some weeks more time, not all cities with airports will be affected, some will be immun etc. He's a bit unprecise. And this assumes a worst-case-1918-like virus . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

but it's not very trustworthy when Mr.Leavitt contradicts himself or makes

wrong statements. Who will believe him on the preparation issue, when

he's wrong on other issues or gives silly arguments ?

-----------------------------------------

In einer eMail vom 15.01.2006 07:36:58 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt jackalope_lepus@...:

These people need to be awakened and Mr Leavitt is trying to wake them.They need to understand that some preparation is necessary. As for speed, we do not know. But it is better to be prepared. Pandemic's toll would be dire, health czar says

[Guest guest]

I disagree. Please Re-read the Weekly Standard article " Fuss and

Feathers " on this flu which treats the whole thing as a joke.

Flu/message/2601

These people need to be awakened and Mr Leavitt is trying to wake them.

They need to understand that some preparation is necessary. As for

speed, we do not know. But it is better to be prepared.

Pandemic's toll would be dire,

health czar says

>

[Guest guest]

Pandemic flu may be able to spend fast through the Military.

Like in 1918.

Just an imagination.

If Northern Iraq which is bordering Turkey

also has some bird flu which can become pandemic.

Note that neighbour Iran has taken some border area precautions.

It may hit US solders returning to various US cities.

So every city has to be prepared. Based on the Iraq war,

I don't think the looters should have been tolerated after the

US took over Bagdad. Was the US prepared?

No offence to anyone.

sterten@... wrote:

> In einer eMail vom 14.01.2006 08:54:51 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

> schreibt rboylern@...:

>

> >Mr. Leavitt is particularly unhelpful. Where does he get the

> notion that this would >break out in every community at the same

> time? That just doesn't make any sense >at all.

>

> he probably means: all(many) cities with airports. I read this

> with the EpiCast prediction too.

> Of course, some villages etc. will have some weeks more time,

> not all cities with airports will be affected, some will be immun

> etc.

> He's a bit unprecise. And this assumes a worst-case-1918-like virus

>

>

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 16.01.2006 06:48:09 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

Yes, it's very wise to be prepared; but at the same time it still doesn't make sense to hold that this is going to drop on the whole world in a flash. Perhaps Mr. Leavitt could have reminded people where to find information on preparedness. That would have been very helpful indeed. When people have the facts they tend not to get into a froth of panic.

---------------------------------------

this is not so easy. I'd been following this since months and I still don't know, how to prepare ! OK, I got a mask,gloves,alcohol,bleech,Tamiflu but can I stay

here ? What more medicaments do I need, should I stockpile food,water etc. ?

[Guest guest]

Yes, it's very wise to be prepared; but at the same time it still doesn't make sense to hold that this is going to drop on the whole world in a flash. Perhaps Mr. Leavitt could have reminded people where to find information on preparedness. That would have been very helpful indeed. When people have the facts they tend not to get into a froth of panic.Lee <jackalope_lepus@...> wrote: I disagree. Please Re-read the Weekly Standard article "Fuss and Feathers" on this flu which treats the whole thing as a joke. Flu/message/2601These people need to be awakened and Mr Leavitt is trying to wake them.They need to understand that some preparation is

necessary. As for speed, we do not know. But it is better to be prepared. Pandemic's toll would be dire, health czar says> . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

> this is not so easy. I'd been following this since months and I

still don't know, how to prepare ! OK, I got a mask, gloves, alcohol,

bleech, Tamiflu but can I stay here? What more medicaments do I need,

should I stockpile food, water, etc.?>

I would think stockpiling food and water is a given. If (IF) this

thing does become a pandemic, people who have not prepared are going

to panic. While the stores stay open, it will be a madhouse, and will

be a matter of hours/days when they will become empty. Once they are

empty, if travel has already been limited, there will be no more big

trucks brining in renewal stocks.

Mostly what I've seen is to be prepared for at least 3 months. It

sounds like an awful lot of food to stockpile, but it may just come

down to one or two hardy meals a day. Things to conser--beans and

green veggies. dry beans are best and most nutritious. Someone said

rice at costco is only $10/50 lbs. 300 lbs of rice would go quite fast

if that's all you had to eat.

I'd also like to remind those of you who are stockpiling--make sure

the dry good you purchase can be kept dry and away from pests. Storage

could be as simple as clean paint cans or clean garbage cans.

Although, I still worry about mildew in garbage cans--they aren't air

tight.

It doesn't have to be an expensive thing, a can or two each time you

go to the store. a couple of bags of beans, or 10 lbs of rice here and

there. You don't want to do it all at once, unless it's too late.

[Guest guest]

It is wise to be prepared, but conservatives do not want preparation,

hence Mr. Leavitt's speech. In addition, our system for spotting an

outbreak is so poor abroad that the pandemic may suddenly be

identified in Asia or Africa at any moment and then take wing for the

West. Our warning time would indeed be minimal because large numbers

of people in remote villages will have died before the pandemic can

be identified.

I disagree. Please Re-read the

Weekly Standard article " Fuss and

> Feathers " on this flu which treats the whole thing as a joke.

>

> Flu/message/2601

>

> These people need to be awakened and Mr Leavitt is trying to wake

them.

> They need to understand that some preparation is necessary. As for

> speed, we do not know. But it is better to be prepared.

[Guest guest]

It would be wise to stockpile some emergency food and water, just in case. My partner and I have done so and we continue to add to our stored food little by little. From the medicine standpoint, it looks like you've got everything you need.sterten@... wrote: In einer eMail vom 16.01.2006 06:48:09 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: Yes, it's very wise to be prepared; but at the same time it still doesn't make sense to hold that this is going to drop on the whole world in a flash. Perhaps Mr. Leavitt could have reminded people where to find

information on preparedness. That would have been very helpful indeed. When people have the facts they tend not to get into a froth of panic. --------------------------------------- this is not so easy. I'd been following this since months and I still don't know, how to prepare ! OK, I got a mask,gloves,alcohol,bleech,Tamiflu but can I stay here ? What more medicaments do I need, should I stockpile food,water etc. ? . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter

don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Stockpiling food, water, and other essestials is a good idea. But

euqaly important is for people to organize themselves. I think the

best chances for getting through something like this safely would be

for communities to be organized. People could share responsibilities

in a crisis, and they could know that they have a specific job to do

should a crisis arise. I firmly believe that the survivalist approach

at the family or individual level is not the best route here.

Communities should get together and prepare themselves. I still think

you should stock up on things, but I also think that people need to

reach out to each other and work together if they are to get through this.

Pete