Why the Chicken Virus Crossed the Border

[Guest guest]

Why the Chicken Virus Crossed the Border

By ZAHIN HASAN Published: November 22, 2005 Dhaka, Bangladesh

POOR countries are failing in their efforts to stop avian flu from

spreading to humans. Yesterday, Indonesian doctors reported an eighth

human death from the disease in that country; if confirmed, it would

be the 68th avian flu death worldwide. In Bangladesh, we have yet to

see the virus on our poultry farms. When we do, we will have to

confront the same public health crisis that Indonesia and other

countries face now.

The government of Bangladesh has prudently banned the import of

poultry from all countries that have declared bird flu outbreaks, as

well as from a few countries that are suspected of covering up

outbreaks. But because the virus can also be spread by migratory

birds, it seems inevitable that it will eventually reach Bangladesh.

And we in the industry know that vaccinating chickens, as Indonesia

has done and China now proposes to do, will not prevent human deaths.

First, flu viruses mutate frequently; a particular vaccine may match

the field virus for just a few months, after which it will be less

effective. And even when the vaccine does match, it is possible for

an inoculated flock to include a few unprotected birds that replicate

enough virus to spread the disease to farm workers and surrounding

farms. This can happen because workers injecting vaccines do not

always use the correct technique when they grow tired or bored; or

because even correctly vaccinated chickens may not have an immune

response if they are malnourished or stressed by crowding. Because

the disease will kill only the few unprotected chickens, its presence

on farms that have used the vaccine may go unnoticed until farm

workers or neighboring households are infected. That is probably why

humans are still periodically dying of bird flu in Indonesia despite

the vaccinations there.

Many Indonesians raise chickens in their backyards or keep pet birds

in cages. If the virus spreads among these birds, their human owners

could be exposed, thus increasing the probability that a person could

become simultaneously infected with bird flu and human flu. Such an

infection might result in an exchange of genes between viruses, which

could create the dreaded (and as yet unseen) pandemic flu virus. To

prevent a pandemic, the trickle of human infections must be stopped

before it becomes a flood.

The best strategy for stopping bird flu is to cull all poultry and

pet birds, even healthy ones, within a wide radius of each detected

outbreak. But in a country like Indonesia, where annual per capita

income is only about $1,140, farmers will not kill healthy chickens

without compensation. And the Indonesian government cannot afford to

pay for healthy chickens to be culled. So human infections - and the

threat of a pandemic - will continue.

What will happen when the bird flu virus spreads to Bangladesh, where

the annual per capita income is only $440? There are more than

100,000 small poultry farms in Bangladesh, producing $400 million

worth of chickens and $300 million worth of eggs every year. The

government is watching carefully for bird flu, but it will not have

the funds to cull poultry when an outbreak is detected. Its only

realistic option will be to import vaccines so that farmers can

protect their investments. As in Indonesia, vaccinated chickens will

be largely protected, but humans will periodically become infected.

Periodically, that is, until a pandemic begins.

To avert this, North America and Western Europe need to help Asian

governments pay for an effective bird flu eradication program. This

will be very expensive, because farmers have to be compensated for

destroying millions of healthy chickens in affected areas. However,

it would stop periodic bird flu infections in humans.

Aid donors should require Asian governments to commit to surveillance

for, and honest reporting of, avian influenza outbreaks. Thailand did

not admit to having a bird flu problem until the first human case was

confirmed in January 2004. If the Thai authorities had announced

outbreaks among poultry months earlier, it might have been possible

to stop the spread of the disease before there were any human deaths

in Thailand.

My family started a business breeding day-old chicks in the late

1990's. We reinvested all our profits and expanded rapidly until

human cases of bird flu were confirmed in Thailand in 2004. The news

panicked Bangladeshi consumers. Chicken consumption plummeted. Our

company was forced to cull 860,000 healthy chicks because they simply

could not be sold. The consumer panic eventually ended, and demand

recovered. But the experience has convinced me that the poultry

industry in Asia will remain viable only in countries that can

protect humans from bird flu.

Unfortunately, denial has been the knee-jerk reaction in many Asian

countries. We in the industry have credible reports of bird flu

outbreaks on farms in countries that have not reported the disease. A

well-financed and organized effort in cooperation with farmers is the

only way to keep the number of human cases from mounting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/22/opinion/22hasan.html

Zahin Hasan directs the production operations of the largest poultry

breeder in Bangladesh.