New flu strain 'could kill 650,000' in UK alone

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New flu strain 'could kill 650,000' By t and agencies

Last Updated: 2:56am BST 31/08/2007

Up to 650,000 people could die in England and Wales in the event of a

flu pandemic, an official report warns.

The Home Office document outlines plans for dealing with an outbreak,

including the possibility of mass burials and storing dead bodies in

refrigerated trailers.

Processes for dealing with mass casualties were likely to be

overwhelmed at the height of a pandemic, with up to 22pc extra deaths

at its height, the paper said.

The risk of a human influenza pandemic is different from seasonal flu,

which affects the population every winter and plans would only apply

if a new strain of " ordinary " flu emerged, or if avian flu became

easily transmitted from birds to humans.

Officials projected between 48,000 and 650,000 deaths depending on a

" base " case scenario and a " worst " case scenario.

Even the prudent projections involved 320,000 mortalities from a human

flu pandemic.

" Cemetery managers are likely to want to move to provision of common

graves, which would allow interments to be undertaken more quickly, "

said the paper.

It may be necessary to restrict families' choice over the burial of a

relative even if funeral services increase their working hours and

move to a seven days a week operation, the consultation paper said.

Coffin manufacturers may also have to limit choice and sizes of

coffins to meet demand.

NHS trusts and local authorities would draw up plans for extra

mortuaries, using tent-like structures, standard refrigerated

containers or other temporary buildings.

The paper raised the prospect of granting nurses the power to sign

death certificates, as well as retired doctors.

Registrars may also have to appoint new staff to act as deputies to

deal with large numbers of death registrations, it added.

The document, Planning For A Possible Influenza Epidemic, is intended

to help a range of agencies improve their preparations for an

outbreak, and is open for consultation until the end of November.

A separate Department of Health report published in March predicted up

to 750,000 deaths across the UK in a flu pandemic.

Pandemic flu last occurred in 1968/69, when so-called Hong Kong flu

killed an estimated one million worldwide, 30,000 of those in the UK.

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