WHO raises pandemic alert to phase 4

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WHO raises pandemic alert to phase 4

Level means sustained human-to-human transmission is causing outbreaks

msnbc.com staff and news service reports

updated 7:34 p.m. ET, Mon., April 27, 2009

The World Health Organization has raised its pandemic alert for swine flu by one

level to phase 4, two steps short of declaring a full-blown pandemic.

WHO says the phase 4 alert means sustained human-to-human transmission is

causing outbreaks in at least one country. It signals a significant increase in

the risk of a global epidemic, but doesn't mean a pandemic is inevitable.

Dr. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director for health security and environment, said

the WHO committee discussed the level very carefully to consider whether moving

to phase 4 or phase 5 was most appropriate, and " it was clearly felt we were

seeing human-to-human transmission, and that put us into phase 4. "

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He said WHO wants more information about widespread community transmission

before suggesting that a pandemic is imminent.

" We don't really have evidence of community spread, " he said...

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Explaining pandemic alerts

The World Health Organization revised on Monday its 6-point scale for pandemic

alerts, saying that phase 5 would correspond to a strong signal that a pandemic

is " imminent. "

The revised scale was published ahead of a decision by an advisory body of

experts on whether to raise the alert level from the current level of 3.

In a report posted on its Web site, the WHO said that under the new criteria:

Phase 4: is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal

or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause " community-level

outbreaks. " The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community

marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that

suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that

the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected

country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is

warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but

does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion

Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one

region.

Phase 6: is a global pandemic characterised by widespread outbreaks in more than

one region.

" While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of

phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to

finalize the organization, communication and implementation of the planned

mitigation measures is short, " it said.