Hospital shortages a concern if flu pandemic hits Delaware

December 22, 2006

By JEFF MONTGOMERY, The News Journal

Posted Wednesday, December 13, 2006 at 2:13 pm

Delaware has made strides in preparing for a global outbreak of deadly

" avian " influenza and other disaster threats, but hospital bed

shortages and other serious hurdles remain, state emergency officials

were told today.

The state Emergency Response Commission briefing followed the release

of a national report by Trust for America's Health that ranked

Delaware in the upper half of the states in preparations for

disasters, bioterrorism and disease outbreaks.

Blunting the ranking were lower grades for neighboring land, New

Jersey and Pennsylvania. States surrounding Delaware have more gaps in

preparing for avian flu, a disease that officials believe would race

across borders, crippling state, national and global economies.

" Little Delaware may be spending an awful of time responding on its

own, just because of the high populations around us that will require

a lot " from federal agencies, said Craig Koska, an educator with the

state's public health preparedness program.

Concern about a flu " pandemic " has grown with the discovery of a

volatile influenza strain in domestic and wild bird flocks that has

the potential to mutate and jump to humans before natural immunities

develop. Researchers believe a similar virus caused the 1918

" pandemic " that killed up to 40 million worldwide and 675,000 in the

United States

A new pandemic could sicken 100 million people globally, including 90

million in the United States and as many as 252,000 in Delaware, or

nearly one-in-three residents under worst-case scenarios assessed by

the Division of Public Health. More than 13,000 people in Delaware

could require hospitalization during the predicted 25 month outbreak,

with more than 3,000 state residents dying.

" We know that we're going to have to come up with a way to help the

hospitals, " Koska said, noting that about 95 percent of Delaware's

2,000 hospital beds are filled even under normal conditions.

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