Texas prepares for possible pandemic flu outbreak

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Texas prepares for possible pandemic flu outbreak

By JAMIE STENGLE / Associated Press

With a statewide drill planned for next year to test Texas'

preparedness for a possible pandemic flu outbreak, health officials

are continuing to tweak the state's response plan.

Several similar drills have already been done locally and regionally.

" With pandemic flu, so much of it starts out as a local response, "

said Palmer, spokeswoman for the Texas Department of State

Health Services, which is heading up the response to a possible pandemic.

The state plan has been in place since 2004 and updated several times

since. Local health departments, hospitals, businesses and schools

also have prepared their own plans in coordination with the state.

A pandemic flu outbreak occurs when a new, highly contagious form of

the flu virus emerges. There is heightened concern that the Asian bird

flu could cause a pandemic if it starts easily spreading among humans.

In the last century there were three flu pandemics, the worst being a

1918 outbreak that killed about 50 million people worldwide, and

500,000 in the U.S.

Cherise Rohr-Allegrini, epidemiologist at the San Metro Health

District, said that the department has been working not only with city

and county agencies to help them come up with preparedness plans, but

also with schools and businesses.

" A large part of our preparedness is making sure other people are

prepared, " Rohr-Allegrini said.

In Dallas, the city is working on a plan to fill spots if a third of

the work force is out sick or caring for a sick person. For instance,

library personnel, who would not be essential during a pandemic, could

be trained to be 911 operators, said Kenny Shaw, director of the

city's office of emergency management.

In West Texas, about 120 people attended the Ector County Health

Department's two-day flu summit at the end of November, said Sallie

Connor, public health preparedness program manager for the department.

The state's plan estimates that an international outbreak of a new

variation of the flu could have a 25 to 50 percent attack rate,

meaning 5 to 10 million Texans could get sick. Of those, 4 percent —

between 200,000 to 400,000 — might have to be hospitalized. Between

75,000 to 500,000 Texans could die.

The plan notes that while local communities are considering

alternatives to provide care for the sick, there won't be enough

hospital beds for the severely ill. The Texas Hospital Association

says the state's 554 hospitals have about 77,000 beds. Most people

would have to be cared for at home.

But during a pandemic, health officials say staffing the hospitals —

rather than a shortage of beds — will be the biggest problem.

Rohr-Allegrini said hospital staff will need training to take on extra

duties in case many other employees are unable to report to work.

Among points still to be completed are how many extra antivirals Texas

will order. Antivirals like Tamiflu can be used to reduce flu symptoms

and can also help protect against it. The state already has access to

about 3.3 million antivirals as part of the national stockpile.

Officials are in the process of tweaking the guidelines for who will

get antivirals, both as a precaution and a treatment.

Much of the planning for a pandemic — which could last up to a year

with two waves of outbreaks — will depend on various factors,

including how much warning is available before the pandemic strikes

and its severity, Palmer said. It is also unknown whether antivirals

would be effective against whatever strain hits and how long it might

take to get a vaccine.

" Everybody would go into their response planning mode, " Palmer said.

" I know there's going to be a lot of decisions that are made at a last

minute. "

Texas Department of State Health Services: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8M1ONG80.html