Worst of swine flu pandemic has yet to come, experts warn

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Worst of swine flu pandemic has yet to come, experts warn

Over 100 prescriptions for antiviral medication are being handed out in Northern

Ireland each day — with health experts warning the worst of the swine flu

pandemic is yet to come.

Latest government figures on the spread of swine flu throughout Northern Ireland

are to be released today and are expected to show a further sharp hike in the

number of laboratory confirmed cases, GP consultations and hospitalisations

across the province due to swine flu.

Government statistics relating to the four-week period between the weeks ending

September 4 and September 25 have already reinforced warnings by health

officials of an explosion in swine flu cases, while the death on Tuesday of a

young child with the virus has raised further fears among parents across

Northern Ireland.

At the beginning of September there were an average of two new laboratory

confirmed cases each day but this had risen to eight every day by the end of the

month.

However, laboratory confirmed cases do not reveal the true extent of the spread

of the H1N1 virus as very few people have been tested for swine flu since the

government stopped routine testing of suspected cases as the UK moved to a

treatment approach.

But in the week ending September 25, there were 831 antiviral prescriptions

handed out, almost three times as many given to patients at the beginning of the

month.

This brings to 10,623 the number of antiviral prescriptions given to patients

since the beginning of the swine flu outbreak.

An average of six people were hospitalised across Northern Ireland each day as a

result of swine flu during the week ending September 25, while GP consultations

for flu and flu-like symptoms had risen to record levels for the time of year.

While Dr Dunn, chairman of the British Medical Association's Northern

Ireland General Practitioner's committee, has urged the public to remain calm in

light of the latest tragic death, he has warned the number of cases is likely to

rise.

" I think the figures we are seeing at the moment are what we were expecting but

I think it's just the beginning, " he said.

" We escaped the worst of swine flu when the schools broke up for summer but with

the new school term swine flu is going to spread again and I think the figures

reflect that.

" The number of GP consultations could be multiplied by three or four but we are

as prepared as we can. GPs have certainly seen a rise in their workload but they

are coping well. "

The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSSPS) has yet to

announce when it will begin its swine flu vaccination programme for at risk

groups and frontline healthcare staff although it has said it hopes the

programme will begin by the end of the month.

Doctors across Northern Ireland have also reached an agreement with the

government on how best the vaccination programme can be carried out so that

vulnerable people, such as those with chronic illnesses, can be protected from

the virus.

The cost of the DHSSPS swine flu strategy in Northern Ireland is expected to run

into millions of pounds although a final figure has not yet been released.

Despite this, the DHSSPS has not yet received any additional funding to cover

the massive cost of fighting the swine flu pandemic and it is not known when a

decision will be made regarding making additional cash available to the Health

Minister.

A row erupted earlier this year when Finance Minister Sammy refused a

request by McGimpsey for funds.

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