World unprepared for flu capable of killing 10 million

[Guest guest]

World unprepared for flu capable of killing 10 million

By Mark , Science Correspondent

THE world is unprepared for an influenza pandemic that would infect

well over a billion people and trigger global economic disaster,

leading scientists say today.

International leaders are ignoring indications that the virulent H5N1

strain of avian flu presents a severe threat, and have failed to

introduce the cross-border measures essential if a worldwide outbreak

is to be contained.

Such a pandemic could affect 20 per cent of the world's population,

putting 30 million in hospital and killing a quarter of them,

according to even optimistic predictions. It would also lead to the

collapse of international trade and cause economic and social chaos

even in rich countries that can protect their populations with drugs

and vaccines.

In expert commentaries published today in Nature, some of the world's

foremost authorities on flu argue that only a meticulously planned

global response stands a chance of averting a catastrophe.

They call for a permanent international taskforce to prepare for a

pandemic, in place of country-by-country arrangements. Urgent action

is needed to develop ways of designing and manufacturing vaccines

against the virus — a process that now takes six months — and to

agree international guidelines for eliminating reservoirs of

potentially dangerous strains in poultry and wildlife.

The calls come amid growing concern that the H5N1 virus circulating

in Asia has the potential to start a human pandemic. It has infected

at least 97 people in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, of whom 53 have

died. Most of those cases were contracted from birds, but there are

emerging indications of occasional transmission between people — the

key step to a pandemic. Last week, the World Health Organisation said

it was concerned about possible human-to-human infection in north

Vietnam, though this has not been confirmed.

Even if H5N1 does not start a pandemic, another is certain to strike:

they generally happen at intervals of about 30 to 40 years, and the

last took place in 1968, killing a million people. The worst on

record was the Spanish flu of 1918-19, which may have caused 50

million deaths.

Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota, said " bold

leadership " and meaningful financial investment in vaccine research

is required from the G8 industrialised countries, which are not

taking the issue sufficiently seriously.

" When the G8 leaders next meet, in Scotland in July, avian flu will

be on the agenda, but major commitments are unlikely, " Dr Osterholm

said. " These nations urgently need to recognise the economic and

security and health threat that the next flu pandemic poses, and

invest accordingly. The arrival of pandemic flu will trigger a

reaction that will change the world overnight.

" We must demand nothing less than an international effort. If

industrial countries continue to develop vaccines for just

themselves, they, and everyone else, will remain vulnerable to a

global disaster. Even if nations vaccinate their entire populations,

they cannot remain isolated from a pandemic shock. "

Albert Osterhaus, ofthe Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, wants a

task force of experts in human and animal medicine, virology,

epidemiology, pathology, ecology and agriculture. Teams would be sent

to investigate outbreaks, to assess pandemic potential and institute

containment measures. Such a taskforce would cost $1.5 million

(£820,000) a year.

This compares with agricultural losses of up to $880 million for H5N1

outbreaks in Thailand and Vietnam.

CASE HISTORY

1918-19 H1N1 `Spanish flu' strain kills 50 million

1957 H2N2 virus kills up to 4 million people

1968 H3N2 `Hong Kong flu' kills about 1 million

1997 First outbreak of H5N1 avian flu in Hong Kong. 18 people

infected and six die

Feb 2003 H7N7 avian flu infects 83 people in the Netherlands by

contact with birds. One man, a vet, dies

Jan 2004 H5N1 infects 11 and kills eight in Thailand and Vietnam. By

August, 26 are dead

Sept 2004 First suspected case of human-to-human transmission of H5N1

March 2005 Britain invests £200 million in antiviral drugs

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1628083,00.html