Re: Re: Flu pandemic overdue and inevitable

[Guest guest]

Thanks, Don. That clarifies it better for me. Don <DCFrench@...> wrote: Maybe it is possible to state how long on average it should take forthe mutations to occur to change a purely avian virus into a humanpandemic virus. Then after a certain amount of time, wouldn't it bepossible to say that we were statistically overdue for those mutationsto occur? Of course, if none of those mutations have yet occurred,then the total time remains the same and we are not yet

overdue,statistically speaking. On the other hand, it is not like thestatistical probability of an earthquake happening, where tensionbuilds on the fault over time and so the probability increases withthe passage of time. -- Don Flu pandemic overdue andinevitable> By Tamara McLean, National Medical Writer> Australia must brace itself for an influenza which can't be prevented,> a visiting US official has warned.> > Hargan, the US Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human> Services, said during a speech in Sydney that the world was overdue> for a flu

pandemic, and Australia must take heed.> > "Never before have we been as overdue but under-prepared for a> recurring natural disaster as we are now for a pandemic," Mr Hargan> told the conservative think tank The Sydney Institute on Monday night.> > He described an outbreak as having a `popcorn effect': "a pop here,> then there, then several, and soon eruptions all over".> > Such an event probably could not be prevented, no nation would be> spared, and any community that was relying on a national-level> government to offer a life line "will be tragically wrong", he said.> > The latest bird flu, known the H5N1 virus, was the biggest and> worrying current threat, and its spread to Australian birds was> inevitable, Mr Hargan said.> > "It has spread over migratory flyways from Southeast Asia to Central> Asia, Europe, and the Middle East," he

said.> > "Given global flyway patterns, it is probably only a matter of time> before it appears in Australia and North America."> > This strain was particularly problematic because it mimicked the> deadly 1918 pandemic virus more closely than others, and had proven a> 50 per cent death rate among the 290 people so far infected.> > "If the H5N1 strain were to develop into a human-to-human> transmissible strain, no one would have immunity," said Mr Hargan, who> will be meeting Australian officials to discuss the issue.> > "And if it retained its terrible level of mortality, we could be> facing a global catastrophe.> > "If a pandemic strikes, it will come to the United States. It will> come to Australia. It will come to communities all across the world."> > Mr Hargan said the US was focusing on developing vaccines and> monitoring disease

to "quickly stomp out the spark" of a pandemic.> > And while the nation was successfully stock-piling life-saving> anti-viral drugs it had yet to perfect a distribution plan that would> get medicine to the sick within 36 hours.> > "Some people may think that our preparation is a waste and that we are> being alarmist," he said.> > "In reply, I can only say that these people are right - until they're> wrong. And the consequences of them being wrong are greater than the> consequences of us being wrong.">http://milton.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=national%20news & subclass=general & story_id=580106 & category=general> Brought to you by AAP> > > > > >

> > . Do one thing every day that scares you. Eleanor Roosevelt> . Do one thing every day that scares you. Eleanor

Roosevelt