World Bank: Bird Flu Might Threaten Asia's Economic Health

November 7, 2005

By Jim Randle Washington 03 November 2005

The World Bank says bird flu could pose a serious threat to East

Asia's economy if it begins to spread from person to person. The

concerns come as the global lender says Asian nations have overcome a

series of other problems to post strong growth this year.

The World Bank's chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, Homi

Kharas, says Avian flu is the " really big risk " that overshadows the

region.

" There have been substantial outbreaks in poultry populations in a

number of East Asian countries and although there have been

relatively few human casualties so far, there is considerable concern

that this particular strain of flu might mutate into one that could

cause substantially higher human casualties and substantially higher

economic costs as well, " he said.

Mr. Kharas' comments were posted on the World Bank's Web site.

Earlier experience with the SARS illness shows a disease could

quickly have an impact far outside the agriculture sector, damaging

travel, tourism, trade, and many other industries.

The new World Bank report on emerging East Asia economies says the

region has already had to cope with rising oil prices and changes in

rules for textile exports. But Mr. Kharas says Asian nations have

done " quite well " under the circumstances, posting a growth rate of

just more than six percent in 2005.

The World Bank says the growth rate is likely to slow, but remain

fairly strong, particularly in China.

The bank also said poverty is declining in most parts of East Asia.

This year, the number of people living on less than $2 a day fell to

about 32 percent of the region's population. That is down from

around 50 percent nine years ago.

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