WHO Promises H1N1 Swine Flu Vaccine for All

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WHO Promises H1N1 Swine Flu Vaccine for All

In Case of Flu Pandemic, World Health Organization Says 1-2 Billion Vaccine

Doses Can Be Produced By J. DeNoon WebMD Health News

Reviewed by Brunilda Nazario, MD

May 6, 2009 -- If there's an H1N1 swine flu pandemic, vaccine makers should be

able to churn out " at least " 1 billion to 2 billion doses of H1N1 swine flu

vaccine, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates.

The WHO hasn't yet declared an official pandemic. But given the growing number

of cases worldwide -- as of Wednesday, 1,658 confirmed cases in 23 nations --

acting CDC Director Besser, MD, says it would be surprising if an

official pandemic was not eventually announced.

Like people, pigs can get influenza (flu), but swine flu viruses aren't the same

as human flu viruses. View the slideshow.

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If that happens, world vaccine production would lag only four to six months

behind, says Marie-e Kieny, PhD, the World Health Organization director of

the Initiative for Vaccine Research.

" The current world capacity to make seasonal influenza vaccine is around 900

million doses per year, " Kieny said today at a news conference. " This would

translate to 1 billion to 2 billion doses of H1N1 vaccine if there should be a

pandemic. "

The decision whether to ask vaccine manufacturers to go full speed ahead with

making an H1N1 swine flu vaccine may be made on Thursday at a WHO advisory

committee meeting. The committee is charged with advising the WHO

secretary-general to make a formal request to manufacturers.

Besser said the CDC has not yet decided whether to ask manufacturers for a swine

flu vaccine, although early vaccine preparations are under way.

Many obstacles to a vaccine remain:

• It's not yet known how well the H1N1 virus will grow in eggs.

• There's no way to know for sure that vaccines against the current H1N1

virus strain will match the virus spreading six months from now.

• It's not clear how many vaccine doses will be needed for immunity. If

people already have some immunity from immunization or prior infection with

seasonal H1N1 flu bugs, only one dose may be needed. If not, two doses may be

required.

• It's not known how big a dose of vaccine will be needed. If big doses

are needed, there will be fewer doses to go around.

• Any new vaccine will have to clear at least preliminary safety tests.

Next week, Kieny said, the WHO will meet with vaccine makers to discuss how to

make sure poorer nations have access to H1N1 swine flu vaccine.

" We are appealing to corporate responsibility and working together toward

equitable access, " she said. " The manufacturers we have discussed this with have

been very forthcoming, and we hope in the coming weeks to announce some

agreement has been signed. "

Meanwhile, Besser urged Americans to stay on the alert.

" This remains a dynamic situation, " he said at today's news conference. " We

remain concerned. We see continued spread around the country. "

As state health departments receive test kits from CDC, they are working through

their backlog of suspected cases. The result is that case numbers have surged a

bit. But Besser noted that new cases of H1N1 swine flu continue to occur, and

that more severe cases and deaths can be expected.

As of today, there were 1,487 probable and confirmed cases in 44 states. The

ages of the patients in these cases range from 3 months to 81 years, but the

median age is 16. It's still not clear why older children and young adults are

more likely to get the new flu.

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