Worst case scenario underlies US pandemic plan

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Worst case scenario underlies US pandemic plan By Alonso-zaldivar And

Eileen Sullivan, Associated Press Writers – Tue Apr 28, 7:11 am ET

WASHINGTON – Two million dead. Hospitals overwhelmed. Schools closed. Swaths of

empty seats at baseball stadiums and houses of worship. An economic recovery

snuffed out. We're nowhere close to what government planners say would be a

worst-case scenario: a global flu pandemic. But government leaders at all

levels, and major employers, have spent nearly four years planning for one in

series of exercises.

Their reports, reviewed by The Associated Press, and interviews with

participants paint a grim picture of what could happen if the swine flu gets

severely out of control.

A full-scale pandemic — if it ever comes — could be expected to claim the lives

of about 2 percent of those infected, about 2 million Americans.

The government estimates that a pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu would sicken

90 million Americans, or about 30 percent of the population. Of those, nearly 10

million would have to be admitted to a hospital, and nearly 1.5 million would

need intensive care. About 750,000 would need the help of mechanical ventilators

to keep breathing.

No one would be immune from the consequences, even those who don't get sick,

according to worst-case exercises run by local and national agencies.

Schools would be closed to try to block the spread of illness, for example, but

school buses might be used to take flu victims to alternative clinics rather

than overcrowded hospitals.

A 2006 report on the Washington region found both land and Virginia would

run out of hospital beds within two weeks of a moderate outbreak.

People who got sick would be isolated, and their relatives could be quarantined.

But even if families weren't required to stay home, many would do so to take

care of sick relatives, or because they were afraid of getting sick themselves.

Hotels, restaurants and airlines would face loss of business as business travel

and meetings would be replaced by teleconferences.

In the cities, commuters who do go to work might bike or walk instead of using

mass transit.

People would avoid movie theaters and rent DVDs instead.

In 1918, authorities even called on churches to cancel services, to the chagrin

of some pastors.

Society as a whole would go into a defensive crouch, and that would deliver a

shock to the economy.

The Trust for America's Health, an independent public health group, estimated in

2007 that a severe pandemic would shrink U.S. output by about 5.5 percent.

Take a breath. Even if the new swine flu from Mexico turns out to be especially

aggressive, the worst consequences could be averted.

Although some states are less prepared than others, the nation has made strides

in stockpiling antiviral medicines, speeding the production of vaccines and

laying down basic public health guidelines.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday that the U.S. is

preparing as if the swine flu outbreak were a full pandemic. It is not at that

stage and may never reach it.

Disease detectives are following a series of outbreaks, of varying severity, all

of which appear to be related to Mexico. A pandemic would spread throughout the

world with explosive speed.

The government got serious about worst-case planning during the 2005 bird flu

scare, as the lessons of Hurricane Katrina loomed large.

" We have a playbook that was developed and is being followed, " said

Leavitt, who as secretary of Health and Human Services oversaw pandemic planning

for President W. Bush. " It's a substantially better picture than what we

faced three years ago. "

http://news./s/ap/20090428/ap_on_go_ot/us_med_swine_flu_worst_case