RE: Re: Reversing aging (or even stopping it)

[Guest guest]

Not sure you can count on any one disease to wipe most people out. After

all, once a disease comes along and spreads rapidly, we do start working on

cures. And we often spread these cures around to underdeveloped nations to

insure their eradication from the face of the earth (polio for example).

Even now, people with AIDS (that can afford the meds) are living much longer

than when the disease was first recognized.

The problem is that microbes mutate and keep one step ahead of us. So

cure one thing but then, look out.

on 8/3/2004 2:28 PM, Rodney at perspect1111@... wrote:

> Hi Francesca:

>

> Well, no need to worry about that over the next ~50 to 100 years,

> since the majority of the world's population is going to be wiped out

> by AIDS over the next 30 years.

>

> As evidence I would offer that, since its earliest inception in the

> late 1950s, AIDS infections have risen at a rate of slightly in

> excess of 40% per year.

>

> There have now been about 60 million cases.

>

[Guest guest]

Could be, but a disease of that nature - not contagious like small pox, eg., will remove those that will catch it. The next generations may be more immune, ie, those that might be immune or become will be given more chance to breed.

I don't doubt the trend of increasing pop must somewhere be reversed, but it could be for lack of food, (after downsizing). I noticed it hasn't doubled like previous periods, if the data is correct.

Regards.

----- Original Message -----

From: Rodney

Sent: Tuesday, August 03, 2004 1:28 PM

Subject: [ ] Re: Reversing aging (or even stopping it)

Hi Francesca:Well, no need to worry about that over the next ~50 to 100 years, since the majority of the world's population is going to be wiped out by AIDS over the next 30 years.As evidence I would offer that, since its earliest inception in the late 1950s, AIDS infections have risen at a rate of slightly in excess of 40% per year.There have now been about 60 million cases. Try compounding out that 60 million number at just HALF the historic rate of growth (i.e. take 20% per year) for thirty years. The number you get thirty years out very substantially exceeds the world's entire population. Of course most of the deaths will be in the poorest countries.Nevertheless, my prediction is that the world's population will certainly be below two billion by 2035. Possibly below one billion. (Incidentally I have been predicting this for years. Even written letters to newspapers. Of course they never get published. But articles bemoaning the population explosion continue to appear with regularity. LOL).Rodney.> ............ And of course where will we put everybody who lives to 5000?> > Just my usual "optimistic" nature :-)))

[Guest guest]

P.S. Those numbers ARE staggering.

on 8/3/2004 2:28 PM, Rodney at perspect1111@... wrote:

> Hi Francesca:

>

> Well, no need to worry about that over the next ~50 to 100 years,

> since the majority of the world's population is going to be wiped out

> by AIDS over the next 30 years.

>

[Guest guest]

This is similar to the old idea that population will continue to grow

until there is one person on every meter. It just will not happen. The

cultural feedback if Aids approaches this level of problem would

eliminate the continual spread of the infection.

Positive Dennis

Rodney wrote:

Hi Francesca:

Well, no need to worry about that over the next ~50 to 100 years,

since the majority of the world's population is going to be wiped out

by AIDS over the next 30 years.

As evidence I would offer that, since its earliest inception in the

late 1950s, AIDS infections have risen at a rate of slightly in

excess of 40% per year.

There have now been about 60 million cases.

Try compounding out that 60 million number at just HALF the historic

rate of growth (i.e. take 20% per year) for thirty years. The number

you get thirty years out very substantially exceeds the world's

entire population. Of course most of the deaths will be in the

poorest countries.

Nevertheless, my prediction is that the world's population will

certainly be below two billion by 2035. Possibly below one billion.

(Incidentally I have been predicting this for years. Even written

letters to newspapers. Of course they never get published. But

articles bemoaning the population explosion continue to appear with

regularity. LOL).

Rodney.

> ............ And of course where will we put everybody who lives

to 5000?

>

> Just my usual "optimistic" nature :-)))

[Guest guest]

We might also wonder where the dead will be also. - ruth

From: " Rodney " <perspect1111@...>

Reply-

Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 18:28:21 -0000

Subject: [ ] Re: Reversing aging (or even stopping it)

Hi Francesca:

Well, no need to worry about that over the next ~50 to 100 years,

since the majority of the world's population is going to be wiped out

by AIDS over the next 30 years.

As evidence I would offer that, since its earliest inception in the

late 1950s, AIDS infections have risen at a rate of slightly in

excess of 40% per year.

There have now been about 60 million cases.

Try compounding out that 60 million number at just HALF the historic

rate of growth (i.e. take 20% per year) for thirty years. The number

you get thirty years out very substantially exceeds the world's

entire population. Of course most of the deaths will be in the

poorest countries.

Nevertheless, my prediction is that the world's population will

certainly be below two billion by 2035. Possibly below one billion.

(Incidentally I have been predicting this for years. Even written

letters to newspapers. Of course they never get published. But

articles bemoaning the population explosion continue to appear with

regularity. LOL).

Rodney.

> ............ And of course where will we put everybody who lives

to 5000?

>

> Just my usual " optimistic " nature :-)))

[Guest guest]

Right now I am doing nothing. Just resting from any diet. I lost 5 lbs

from not eating for a week and it stayed off mostly. I am not

exercising, as that would be dumb, so I am surprised my weight is not

ballooning up.

AS regards AIDS, Africa is a special case, prostitution is rampant.

leaves are commonly used to tighten up a woman and this causes the

disease to spread more rapidly as use of these leaves causes bleeding,

Other STD also raise the chance for Aids inflection. But in some

countries the tide has already turned, Uganda.

AS for the rate of inflection there is a problem with tests for Aids,

they may only be detecting exposure to Malaria as this will also cause

a positive result on the test.

Positive Dennis

Rodney wrote:

Hi Dennis:

I am glad to hear things went well. Please keep us up to date with

your weight and BF% data. They are particularly helpful to try to

get a handle on the proportion of weight lost that is fat and the

proportion that is lean body mass. From the data you already posted

I believe it seems to have been about 80% fat. It also seems to have

been about 80% in my case too. Further confirmation of that would be

helpful.

As regards the cultural feedback issue you raise below, do you not

think there has been massive publicity on this matter for twenty

years now, yet the disease continues to advance pretty much

unchecked? One NIH official (Fauci I believe) was quoted recently as

saying something to the effect that 'no one ever expected the disease

would approach this kind of magnitude'. What kind of publicity, or

other actions, will it take to get people, especially those in poor

countries, to sit up and take notice and do some things differently?

And when you think about it, when 20% of the population is infected

and infectious, as in many part of Africa now, it is not likely to be

long before everyone who isn't immune will be infected. And other

countries, it seems to me, are ten to fifteen years behind those in

Africa only for the reason that the disease started there. Not

because of some intrinsic reason to expect a slower rate of progress

in those other countries.

It would be nice to be optimistic about it. But I cannot see any

reason to be yet. It seems to me a vaccine that works would be the

only thing that will be effective. And they have been trying to do

that for twenty years.

Rodney.

> >

> > > ............ And of course where will we put everybody

who

lives

> > to 5000?

> > >

> > > Just my usual "optimistic" nature :-)))

> >

> >

> >

[Guest guest]

Rodney,

About AIDS in Africa, one thing you don't seem to be addressing is that AIDS

is a different animal than other infectious diseases. I mean, you can still

basically choose to be at risk for AIDS or not. Monogamy, not sharing

needles, avoiding blood xfusions, etc., results in your risk factor being

pretty much nil. Education is what will limit the spread of AIDS until such

time as a cure is found (if found). Education which is already at work in

most countries of the world. Not in time to save millions already infected,

not to mention the possibly hundreds of millions soon to be infected, but i

seriously expect that the spread will run up against a wall very soon.

Promiscuity is rampant in many parts of Africa, and local folk wisdom just

throws fuel on the fire. I heard once that in one part of Africa, the idea

is common that a man can cure his AIDS by having sex with a virgin. It's no

wonder that the disease is endemic in those conditions.

(|-|ri5

>

>

>

>

> As regards the cultural feedback issue you raise below, do you not

> think there has been massive publicity on this matter for twenty

> years now, yet the disease continues to advance pretty much

> unchecked? One NIH official (Fauci I believe) was quoted recently as

> saying something to the effect that 'no one ever expected the disease

> would approach this kind of magnitude'. What kind of publicity, or

> other actions, will it take to get people, especially those in poor

> countries, to sit up and take notice and do some things differently?

>

> And when you think about it, when 20% of the population is infected

> and infectious, as in many part of Africa now, it is not likely to be

> long before everyone who isn't immune will be infected. And other

> countries, it seems to me, are ten to fifteen years behind those in

> Africa only for the reason that the disease started there. Not

> because of some intrinsic reason to expect a slower rate of progress

> in those other countries.

>

> It would be nice to be optimistic about it. But I cannot see any

> reason to be yet. It seems to me a vaccine that works would be the

> only thing that will be effective. And they have been trying to do

> that for twenty years.

>

> Rodney.

>

>

> > >

> > > > ............ And of course where will we put everybody who

> lives

> > > to 5000?

> > > >

> > > > Just my usual " optimistic " nature :-)))

> > >

> > >

> > >

[Guest guest]

Incinerate the parts we don't recycle.

Made me think of my neighbor who looked really good at 96yo but he'd lost his eyesight. And his will to live.

Regards.

----- Original Message -----

From: Ruth

Sent: Tuesday, August 03, 2004 8:35 PM

Subject: Re: [ ] Re: Reversing aging (or even stopping it)

We might also wonder where the dead will be also. - ruth