Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

[Guest guest]

Diabetes rates will double worldwide by 2030, to 366 million people with

the disease, even if the obesity rate does not rise, an international team

of researchers reported yesterday.

But the rate will go up even higher if, as expected, more and more people

become overweight, eat a Western diet and stop exercising, the researchers

said.

" The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171

million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030, " the researchers wrote in the latest

issue of Diabetes Care, published by the American Diabetes Association.

In diabetes, the body does not produce or properly use insulin, a hormone

needed to convert sugar, starches and other food into energy.

Wild of the University of Edinburgh in Britain and colleagues in

Australia, Denmark and Switzerland, projected type 2 diabetes rates based

on current trends from around the world. The figures do not include type 1

diabetes.

[Guest guest]

Does anyone know why the rate will double even if the obesity rate doesn't

rise????

----------

From: Francesca Skelton <fskelton@...>

Reply-

Date: Tue, 27 Apr 2004 09:33:07 -0400

support group < >

Subject: [ ] Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

Diabetes rates will double worldwide by 2030, to 366 million people with

the disease, even if the obesity rate does not rise,

[Guest guest]

Caveat- what follows is pure speculation.

I suspect slight increases in type I diabetes might be related to better

treatment and survival rates. Allowing more reproduction within susceptible

genetic lines.

Type II diabetes could be increased by wider availability of high GI

snacks/foods, and lower levels of manual labor and general activity levels

due to technology. Tractors and machines vs. shovels, riding vs. walking or

pedaling, even computer vs. real games. While it seems these patterns will

increase weight too, if you start out with a poor insulin response you

probably don't have to become clinically obese to get type II.

JR

-----Original Message-----

From: Francesca Skelton [mailto:fskelton@...]

Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2004 8:36 AM

support group

Subject: [ ] Re: Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

Does anyone know why the rate will double even if the obesity rate doesn't

rise????

----------

From: Francesca Skelton <fskelton@...>

Reply-

Date: Tue, 27 Apr 2004 09:33:07 -0400

support group < >

Subject: [ ] Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

Diabetes rates will double worldwide by 2030, to 366 million people with

the disease, even if the obesity rate does not rise,

[Guest guest]

You may be interested in: It seems to say that hyperinsulinemia which many prediabetics have enforces growth. A lot of obesers have hyperinsulinemia (metabolic syndrome, syndrome x). BTW, postabsorptive is the term to search with if you're interested in fasting.

Metabolism. 2004 Mar;53(3):388-96.

The hyperinsulinemic amino acid clamp increases whole-body protein synthesis in young subjects.Chevalier S, Gougeon R, Kreisman SH, Cassis C, Morais JA.McGill Nutrition and Food Science Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.We propose that hyperinsulinemia stimulates protein synthesis when postabsorptive plasma amino acid (AA) concentrations are maintained. During a euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp, many AA, notably the branched-chain amino acids (BCAA), decline markedly. Therefore, we tested whether individual plasma AA could be maintained within the range of postabsorptive concentrations to assess the effects of insulin, infused at 40 mU/m(2) x min on whole-body protein and glucose metabolism, using [1-(13)C]-leucine and [3-(3)H]-glucose methodology. Validation studies of background [(13)C] enrichment and breath (13)CO(2) recovery factors were performed in a subset of 6 subjects. In 10 healthy, young men, infusion rates of an AA solution were based on fluorometric determinations of total BCAA every 5 minutes. All 21 plasma AA remained in the target range; 15, including the BCAA, alanine, and glycine were within 13% of baseline, and only 6 (Thr, His, Arg, Asn, Cit, Tyr) varied more (18% to 42%). Notably, both leucine flux and nonoxidative leucine R(d) (protein synthesis) increased with insulin (2.36 +/- 0.06 to 2.81 +/- 0.10 and 1.79 +/- 0.05 to 2.18 +/- 0.10 micromol/kg fat-free mass (FFM) x min, respectively; P <.0005) while leucine oxidation only tended to increase (P =.05) and endogenous leucine R(a) (protein breakdown) decreased by 18% (2.36 +/- 0.06 to 1.94 +/- 0.09 micromol/kg FFM x min; P <.0005), resulting in a marked elevation of net protein synthesis (-0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.24 +/- 0.02 micromol/kg FFM x min; P <.0000001). Thus, in vivo protein anabolism was induced when maintaining postabsorptive plasma amino acid concentrations during hyperinsulinemia through a suppression of whole-body protein breakdown, no significant change in oxidation and an elevation of synthesis compared with postabsorptive conditions.PMID: 15015153

----- Original Message -----

From: Francesca Skelton

support group

Sent: Tuesday, April 27, 2004 8:35 AM

Subject: [ ] Re: Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

Does anyone know why the rate will double even if the obesity rate doesn'trise????

[Guest guest]

Hi Francesca:

Well a partial answer to your question is undoubtedly the following:

The term they used was " diabetes RATES " . But the numbers they

provide that appear to about double, are the number of diabetes

CASES, not the rate per thousand (or whatever) of population.

Twenty six years is a long time. I do not know what future

population growth rate they assumed, but just a 2% growth in

population (no doubt less than that in industrial nations, but likely

much more in under-developed countries) would increase the population

by 67%. A 3% annual rate of growth would MORE THAN DOUBLE the

population by 2030.

So if they assume nothing else changes, except the population, then

366 million cases could easily be pretty much the same RATE as we

have now.

These people MAY, possibly, just be 'lying with statistics' in order

to promote some agenda. (For example, that might be more research

grants, or who knows what else). Obviously I know nothing about

their motivations. But when I see them talking 'rates' and then

providing data for number of 'cases' my bullshit alert warning sirens

get triggered.

Rodney.

> Does anyone know why the rate will double even if the obesity rate

doesn't

> rise????

> ----------

> From: Francesca Skelton <fskelton@e...>

> Reply-

> Date: Tue, 27 Apr 2004 09:33:07 -0400

> support group < >

> Subject: [ ] Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

>

> Diabetes rates will double worldwide by 2030, to 366 million people

with

> the disease, even if the obesity rate does not rise,

[Guest guest]

demographics maybe, aging boomers?

positive Dennis

Francesca Skelton wrote:

Does anyone know why the rate will double even if the obesity rate

doesn't

rise????

----------

From: Francesca Skelton <fskelton@...>

Reply-

Date: Tue, 27 Apr 2004 09:33:07 -0400

support group < >

Subject: [ ] Diabetes Rates Expected To Double by 2030

Diabetes rates will double worldwide by 2030, to 366 million people with

the disease, even if the obesity rate does not rise,