Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture...

[Guest guest]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17736-2004Dec21.html

Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture

Drug Firms' Growth Expected to Slow

By S. Rosenwald

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, December 22, 2004; Page E01

Safety questions about popular pain-killing medications may give people

pause over the nation's pill-popping culture, analysts say, and that would

give the beleaguered drug industry something else to worry about.

The tendency to take prescription pills for everyday aches and pains,

shyness, allergies, impotence, and other " lifestyle " concerns have helped

prop up pharmaceutical company revenue. Now analysts say safety concerns may

prompt a consumer backlash.

" We are entering a period of caution and concern, and a lot of people will

take a second look at the excessive use of so-called lifestyle medicines, "

said Findlay, a health care analyst at Consumers Union in Washington.

In September, Merck & Co. pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the market after

studies found it increased the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Last week,

Pfizer Inc. said high doses of its painkiller Celebrex more than doubled the

risk of heart attacks. And this week, federal health officials said

naproxen, sold over the counter as Aleve, might increase the risk of heart

attack or stroke.

Some also worry that antidepressants pose an increased risk of suicide among

children and teenagers .

" When the average consumer sees the headlines and the news blitz on one drug

after another, you would think that the average person is going to become

more and more concerned, " said Herman Saftlas, a pharmaceutical analyst for

Standard & Poor's.

Members of Congress have expressed concern over the safety problems, and

pressure is mounting on the Food and Drug Administration to strengthen its

safety examination of drugs. Analysts predicted that will lead to lengthier,

more expensive testing of new drugs.

Add to that the pharmaceutical companies' other problems -- including a

dwindling pipeline of new drugs in development and a number of older drugs

losing patent protection -- and the industry's growth prospects appear dim,

analysts said.

" I think it's a tough outlook for them going forward, " said Moskowitz,

managing director of health care research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey

Group Inc.

Gone are the days of 13 and 14 percent annual revenue growth that drug

companies enjoyed in the 1990s. Revenue growth has fallen to 9 or 10 percent

in recent years and is likely to fall further, to 7 or 8 percent annually,

according to Saftlas of Standard & Poor's.

" The growth engines have all slowed, " Saftlas said.

Instead of investing heavily in " me too " drugs that barely differ from

existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials,

Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for

unmet medical needs.

However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the

companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or

two. Still, there may be some bright spots for the drug companies.

Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a

time. " Americans understand taking pills, " he said. " It's simple. It's an

easy thing to do. And many pills over the years have been very effective.

We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to

change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases. "

Jerome L. Avorn, a Harvard Medical School professor and author of a book

called " Powerful Medicines: The Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Prescription

Drugs, " questioned whether there would really be changes in the way that

drug companies and the FDA do business.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Avorn said, " It may be a case of waiting

things out and hoping there will be other crises and hoping that the

public's attention span is short. "

Yesterday, Pfizer shares were buoyed by a twist in the federal study that

showed cardiac problems with naproxen: It didn't show the same problems with

Celebrex. Pfizer shares closed at $24.97, up 68 cents. Merck shares were up

47 cents at $31.98.

But both companies are down significantly from their 52-week highs -- $49.33

for Merck and $38.89 for Pfizer -- and Saftlas said bargain hunters may be

buying up shares.

" I don't see a sustained rally occurring " for drug company shares, Saftlas

said. " I don't see the catalyst to support that rally. "

[Guest guest]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17736-2004Dec21.html

Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture

Drug Firms' Growth Expected to Slow

By S. Rosenwald

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, December 22, 2004; Page E01

Safety questions about popular pain-killing medications may give people

pause over the nation's pill-popping culture, analysts say, and that would

give the beleaguered drug industry something else to worry about.

The tendency to take prescription pills for everyday aches and pains,

shyness, allergies, impotence, and other " lifestyle " concerns have helped

prop up pharmaceutical company revenue. Now analysts say safety concerns may

prompt a consumer backlash.

" We are entering a period of caution and concern, and a lot of people will

take a second look at the excessive use of so-called lifestyle medicines, "

said Findlay, a health care analyst at Consumers Union in Washington.

In September, Merck & Co. pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the market after

studies found it increased the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Last week,

Pfizer Inc. said high doses of its painkiller Celebrex more than doubled the

risk of heart attacks. And this week, federal health officials said

naproxen, sold over the counter as Aleve, might increase the risk of heart

attack or stroke.

Some also worry that antidepressants pose an increased risk of suicide among

children and teenagers .

" When the average consumer sees the headlines and the news blitz on one drug

after another, you would think that the average person is going to become

more and more concerned, " said Herman Saftlas, a pharmaceutical analyst for

Standard & Poor's.

Members of Congress have expressed concern over the safety problems, and

pressure is mounting on the Food and Drug Administration to strengthen its

safety examination of drugs. Analysts predicted that will lead to lengthier,

more expensive testing of new drugs.

Add to that the pharmaceutical companies' other problems -- including a

dwindling pipeline of new drugs in development and a number of older drugs

losing patent protection -- and the industry's growth prospects appear dim,

analysts said.

" I think it's a tough outlook for them going forward, " said Moskowitz,

managing director of health care research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey

Group Inc.

Gone are the days of 13 and 14 percent annual revenue growth that drug

companies enjoyed in the 1990s. Revenue growth has fallen to 9 or 10 percent

in recent years and is likely to fall further, to 7 or 8 percent annually,

according to Saftlas of Standard & Poor's.

" The growth engines have all slowed, " Saftlas said.

Instead of investing heavily in " me too " drugs that barely differ from

existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials,

Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for

unmet medical needs.

However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the

companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or

two. Still, there may be some bright spots for the drug companies.

Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a

time. " Americans understand taking pills, " he said. " It's simple. It's an

easy thing to do. And many pills over the years have been very effective.

We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to

change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases. "

Jerome L. Avorn, a Harvard Medical School professor and author of a book

called " Powerful Medicines: The Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Prescription

Drugs, " questioned whether there would really be changes in the way that

drug companies and the FDA do business.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Avorn said, " It may be a case of waiting

things out and hoping there will be other crises and hoping that the

public's attention span is short. "

Yesterday, Pfizer shares were buoyed by a twist in the federal study that

showed cardiac problems with naproxen: It didn't show the same problems with

Celebrex. Pfizer shares closed at $24.97, up 68 cents. Merck shares were up

47 cents at $31.98.

But both companies are down significantly from their 52-week highs -- $49.33

for Merck and $38.89 for Pfizer -- and Saftlas said bargain hunters may be

buying up shares.

" I don't see a sustained rally occurring " for drug company shares, Saftlas

said. " I don't see the catalyst to support that rally. "

[Guest guest]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17736-2004Dec21.html

Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture

Drug Firms' Growth Expected to Slow

By S. Rosenwald

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, December 22, 2004; Page E01

Safety questions about popular pain-killing medications may give people

pause over the nation's pill-popping culture, analysts say, and that would

give the beleaguered drug industry something else to worry about.

The tendency to take prescription pills for everyday aches and pains,

shyness, allergies, impotence, and other " lifestyle " concerns have helped

prop up pharmaceutical company revenue. Now analysts say safety concerns may

prompt a consumer backlash.

" We are entering a period of caution and concern, and a lot of people will

take a second look at the excessive use of so-called lifestyle medicines, "

said Findlay, a health care analyst at Consumers Union in Washington.

In September, Merck & Co. pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the market after

studies found it increased the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Last week,

Pfizer Inc. said high doses of its painkiller Celebrex more than doubled the

risk of heart attacks. And this week, federal health officials said

naproxen, sold over the counter as Aleve, might increase the risk of heart

attack or stroke.

Some also worry that antidepressants pose an increased risk of suicide among

children and teenagers .

" When the average consumer sees the headlines and the news blitz on one drug

after another, you would think that the average person is going to become

more and more concerned, " said Herman Saftlas, a pharmaceutical analyst for

Standard & Poor's.

Members of Congress have expressed concern over the safety problems, and

pressure is mounting on the Food and Drug Administration to strengthen its

safety examination of drugs. Analysts predicted that will lead to lengthier,

more expensive testing of new drugs.

Add to that the pharmaceutical companies' other problems -- including a

dwindling pipeline of new drugs in development and a number of older drugs

losing patent protection -- and the industry's growth prospects appear dim,

analysts said.

" I think it's a tough outlook for them going forward, " said Moskowitz,

managing director of health care research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey

Group Inc.

Gone are the days of 13 and 14 percent annual revenue growth that drug

companies enjoyed in the 1990s. Revenue growth has fallen to 9 or 10 percent

in recent years and is likely to fall further, to 7 or 8 percent annually,

according to Saftlas of Standard & Poor's.

" The growth engines have all slowed, " Saftlas said.

Instead of investing heavily in " me too " drugs that barely differ from

existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials,

Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for

unmet medical needs.

However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the

companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or

two. Still, there may be some bright spots for the drug companies.

Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a

time. " Americans understand taking pills, " he said. " It's simple. It's an

easy thing to do. And many pills over the years have been very effective.

We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to

change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases. "

Jerome L. Avorn, a Harvard Medical School professor and author of a book

called " Powerful Medicines: The Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Prescription

Drugs, " questioned whether there would really be changes in the way that

drug companies and the FDA do business.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Avorn said, " It may be a case of waiting

things out and hoping there will be other crises and hoping that the

public's attention span is short. "

Yesterday, Pfizer shares were buoyed by a twist in the federal study that

showed cardiac problems with naproxen: It didn't show the same problems with

Celebrex. Pfizer shares closed at $24.97, up 68 cents. Merck shares were up

47 cents at $31.98.

But both companies are down significantly from their 52-week highs -- $49.33

for Merck and $38.89 for Pfizer -- and Saftlas said bargain hunters may be

buying up shares.

" I don't see a sustained rally occurring " for drug company shares, Saftlas

said. " I don't see the catalyst to support that rally. "

[Guest guest]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17736-2004Dec21.html

Safety Issue May Change Pill Culture

Drug Firms' Growth Expected to Slow

By S. Rosenwald

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, December 22, 2004; Page E01

Safety questions about popular pain-killing medications may give people

pause over the nation's pill-popping culture, analysts say, and that would

give the beleaguered drug industry something else to worry about.

The tendency to take prescription pills for everyday aches and pains,

shyness, allergies, impotence, and other " lifestyle " concerns have helped

prop up pharmaceutical company revenue. Now analysts say safety concerns may

prompt a consumer backlash.

" We are entering a period of caution and concern, and a lot of people will

take a second look at the excessive use of so-called lifestyle medicines, "

said Findlay, a health care analyst at Consumers Union in Washington.

In September, Merck & Co. pulled its painkiller Vioxx off the market after

studies found it increased the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Last week,

Pfizer Inc. said high doses of its painkiller Celebrex more than doubled the

risk of heart attacks. And this week, federal health officials said

naproxen, sold over the counter as Aleve, might increase the risk of heart

attack or stroke.

Some also worry that antidepressants pose an increased risk of suicide among

children and teenagers .

" When the average consumer sees the headlines and the news blitz on one drug

after another, you would think that the average person is going to become

more and more concerned, " said Herman Saftlas, a pharmaceutical analyst for

Standard & Poor's.

Members of Congress have expressed concern over the safety problems, and

pressure is mounting on the Food and Drug Administration to strengthen its

safety examination of drugs. Analysts predicted that will lead to lengthier,

more expensive testing of new drugs.

Add to that the pharmaceutical companies' other problems -- including a

dwindling pipeline of new drugs in development and a number of older drugs

losing patent protection -- and the industry's growth prospects appear dim,

analysts said.

" I think it's a tough outlook for them going forward, " said Moskowitz,

managing director of health care research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey

Group Inc.

Gone are the days of 13 and 14 percent annual revenue growth that drug

companies enjoyed in the 1990s. Revenue growth has fallen to 9 or 10 percent

in recent years and is likely to fall further, to 7 or 8 percent annually,

according to Saftlas of Standard & Poor's.

" The growth engines have all slowed, " Saftlas said.

Instead of investing heavily in " me too " drugs that barely differ from

existing products and marketing them with expensive TV commercials,

Moskowitz said drug companies will be under pressure to develop drugs for

unmet medical needs.

However, that approach won't mean big profits, Moskowitz said, unless the

companies develop a variety of successful new medicines, not just one or

two. Still, there may be some bright spots for the drug companies.

Findlay thinks consumer caution over lifestyle drugs will subside after a

time. " Americans understand taking pills, " he said. " It's simple. It's an

easy thing to do. And many pills over the years have been very effective.

We've come to rely on many of our medicines because we are less willing to

change our lifestyles in ways that would lower our risks to some diseases. "

Jerome L. Avorn, a Harvard Medical School professor and author of a book

called " Powerful Medicines: The Benefits, Risks, and Costs of Prescription

Drugs, " questioned whether there would really be changes in the way that

drug companies and the FDA do business.

For the pharmaceutical industry, Avorn said, " It may be a case of waiting

things out and hoping there will be other crises and hoping that the

public's attention span is short. "

Yesterday, Pfizer shares were buoyed by a twist in the federal study that

showed cardiac problems with naproxen: It didn't show the same problems with

Celebrex. Pfizer shares closed at $24.97, up 68 cents. Merck shares were up

47 cents at $31.98.

But both companies are down significantly from their 52-week highs -- $49.33

for Merck and $38.89 for Pfizer -- and Saftlas said bargain hunters may be

buying up shares.

" I don't see a sustained rally occurring " for drug company shares, Saftlas

said. " I don't see the catalyst to support that rally. "