An enormous hepatitis B virus-related liver disease burden projected in Vietnam by 2025

[Guest guest]

Liver International 28 (4) , 525–531 doi:10.1111/j.1478-3231.2007.01646.x

Abstract

CLINICAL STUDIES

An enormous hepatitis B virus-related liver disease burden projected in Vietnam

by 2025

Van Thi Thuy Nguyen11 School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The

University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, G. Law22 National

Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South

Wales, Sydney, Australia and J. Dore22 National Centre in HIV

Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of New South Wales, Sydney,

Australia1 School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New

South Wales, Sydney, Australia

2 National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, The University of

New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Correspondence

Dr Van TT Nguyen, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University

of New South Wales, s building, Level 2, NSW 2052, Australia.

Tel: +61 2 9385 2588

Fax: +61 2 9385 1036

e-mail: v.nguyen@...

Abstract

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the major cause of chronic liver disease

in Vietnam. This study aimed to estimate and project chronic HBV prevalence and

HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for the

period 1990–2025.

Method: The Vietnamese population for the period 1990–1999 was derived from

census data to 1999 and from 2000 to 2025 based on projection data from the

United States Census Bureau. Population chronic HBV prevalence for males and

females was estimated based on age-specific HBV prevalence from Vietnamese

community-based studies. Universal infant HBV vaccination from 2003 was assumed

to reduce HBV infection by 90% in subsequent birth cohorts. Incidences of

HBV-related LC and HCC by HBV DNA levels from the Taiwanese REVEAL studies were

applied to the chronic HBV population to estimate and project HBV-related liver

disease burden.

Results: Estimated chronic HBV prevalence increased from 6.4 million cases in

1990 to around 8.4 million cases in 2005 and was projected to decrease to 8.0

million by 2025. Estimated HBV-related LC and HCC incidence increased linearly

from 21 900 and 9400 in 1990 to 58 650 and 25 000 in 2025. Estimated HBV-related

mortality increased from 12 600 in 1990 to 40 000 in 2025.

Conclusion: Over the next two decades, universal infant HBV vaccination will

reduce chronic HBV prevalence in Vietnam but HBV-related liver disease burden

will continue to rise. A national HBV strategy is required to address this

expanding burden of liver disease.

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1478-3231.2007.01646.x

_________________________________________________________________

Need to know the score, the latest news, or you need your Hotmail®-get your

" fix " .

http://www.msnmobilefix.com/Default.aspx