100th birthdays may soon be the norm in rich nations: researchers

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100th birthdays may soon be the norm in rich nations: researchers

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ST LOUIS, United States (AFP) - Life expectancy may balloon to 100 years old in

rich nations thanks to scientific advances, but such progress could widen the

gap between wealthy and poor nations, according to researchers.

Within the next 10 years, state-of-the-art, anti-ageing technologies could -- if

they come into widespread use -- radically start altering global demographics,

extending people's lifespans by 20 years, according to Shripad Tuljapurkar, a

Stanford University biologist.

Tuljapurkar, in a study presented here Friday to the annual meeting of the The

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), said such

technologies could see people in industrialized countries living to age 100.

Aubrey De Gray, a biologist at Cambridge University in England, backed up

Tuljapurkar's research.

" There is a 50 percent chance of creating therapies within 20 years to give

middle-aged people an extra 25 years of life, " De Gray said.

However, Tuljapurkar, who is also a professor of population studies, warned such

advances could trigger critical social and socio-economic problems, creating a

larger gap between the world's rich and poor.

He also questions how the world and policymakers would cope with a

" longer-lived " population.

" Some people believe we are on the brink of being able to extend human lifespan

significantly, because we've got most of the technologies we need to do it, "

Tuljapurkar said.

He estimated that between 2010 and 2030, the most common age of death will

increase by 20 years if anti-ageing therapies come into wide use.

This projected increase would see an increase in the most common age of death in

industrialized countries such as the United States from roughly 80 years to 100.

Eileen Crimmins, a biologist at the University of Southern California, believes

policymakers will be able to adjust to ageing populations.

" Science and medicine will continue to push aging back at a gradual pace and the

trend toward longer life should be manageable. Demography isn't destiny;

accommodations can be made with sensible policies, " Crimmins said.

Tuljapurkar warned, however, that inequalities could emerge as wealthy

individuals who can afford such technologies turn to companies marketing

anti-ageing treatments.

" Are some people going to be left behind? Are we going to make society far more

unequal than it is now? " he said.

He predicts that lifespan booms could be confined to rich states whose citizens

can afford such benefits and whose governments have the cash to sponsor such

cutting-edge science.

And he cautions that the distribution of anti-ageing technologies is likely to

be controlled by companies focused on maximising returns for their share

holders.

Noting than many Africans cannot afford or gain access to crucial

AIDS drug treatments, Tuljapurkar warns anti-ageing breakthroughs could create

fresh problems for those seeking such treatments but unable to afford them.

" If we can't deal with AIDS in Africa, the chance that we'll be able to deliver

these anti-aging technologies to other nations is pretty slim, " he said.

He said that if anti-ageing technologies are distributed in an unchecked free

market, " it's entirely likely to me that we'll wind up with permanent global

underclasses, countries that get locked into today's mortality conditions " .

According to Tuljapurkar's research, if anti-ageing therapies come into common

use, the world's population could balloon to between 10 and 11 billion people

between 2010 and 2030, compared to current projections of eight billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060221/ts_alt_afp/ushealthageingresearch