100,000 children in bird flu risk

[Guest guest]

100,000 children in bird flu risk

EDDIE BARNES AND RICHARD GRAY Sun 9 Apr 2006

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/health.cfm?id=544892006

THE government has made plans for the mass closure of schools, amid warnings

that 100,000 children might die if the bird flu virus mutates into a human

pandemic.

The chief medical officer for England and Wales, Sir Liam son, has

advised the government that shutting schools could halve the number of

pupils who would be killed if the bird flu virus mutates into a form that is

transferable between humans.

There is no firm evidence that the H5N1 strain of bird flu can pass between

people. But there are fears it might mutate or mix with human flu viruses to

create a new virus.

In a letter to schools minister Jacqui , son wrote: " Until the

pandemic virus emerges, we cannot know for certain which groups would be

most vulnerable. If all age groups were affected equally, and the virus was

particularly severe (ie at the upper end of our assumptions), the excess

deaths in school-age children could be as high as 100,000. This would mean

that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures. "

A ish Executive spokesman said no detailed plans had been made to close

schools north of the Border, but it was " one of many measures " being

considered by ministers, if the H5N1 virus mutates into a form potentially

fatal to humans.

It was also reported last night that off-duty firemen and retired lorry

drivers will be pressed into service to ensure deliveries of essential food

supplies in the event of a bird flu pandemic.

In Fife yesterday, residents in Cellardyke were being monitored by health

officials in case any showed signs of symptoms caused by H5N1.

Hospitals and doctors have been placed on alert to be prepared to quarantine

patients suspected of suffering from the early stages of the virus. Locals

from the village who came into close contact with the dead swan have been

advised to check their temperature twice a day and report to a doctor at the

first signs of coughing, sore throat or fever.

Doctors are also to visit all residents who went near the swan to take blood

samples to ensure no one is carrying the virus without suffering any

symptoms. Dr Harry Burns, Chief Medical Officer for Scotland, said: " If

there is any evidence that they have a temperature or other symptoms then

they will be given prophylaxis [a drug to prevent infection developing].

" If a patient is identified as having been in close contact with infected

birds then they will be isolated and placed under close surveillance. "

Meanwhile, Chief Veterinary Officer Milne revealed yesterday that

tests on the dead swan had given scientists clues to where the virus had

come from. He said it was almost identical to the version of the virus found

during an outbreak of H5N1 which affected more than 100 birds on Ruegen

Island, off the north-east coast of Germany, in February.

Last night Nabarro, the UN's chief coordinator on bird flu, said the

death of the ish swan suggested other birds were carrying the viurs in

Britain. He said: " The one swan is a good indicator there will be other

species, like ducks and geese, that are flying around carrying H5N1,

excreting it in their faeces and therefore also capable of getting infection

into domestic poultry and into other species. "

Scientists were last night testing dead birds from a further 30 locations

around Cellardyke, following reports from members of the public.

Officials said the number of reports of dead birds to their helpline had

soared since the presence of virus was confirmed last week. But they said no

further suspected cases had yet been found.

The eight ish laboratories which can test for bird flu will stay open

this weekend and at Easter to cope with the number of dead birds being

reported. The move comes after concerns over delays in getting the results

back from tests on the dead swan.

Scientists at the Veterinary Laboratories Agency in Weybridge have been told

to prioritise tests on dead birds from Scotland ahead of those from

elsewhere in the UK.