1 in 5 could get bird flu

July 22, 2007

Created: Tuesday, July 17, 2007

About 20 percent of the population in some countries could be affected

in the event of a global flu pandemic, World Health Organisation chief

Margaret Chan said Tuesday.

" From experience we do know that what we call the attack rate of a new

pandemic would range - based on past experience it does not

necessarily apply for the next pandemic - (to) roughly 20 percent or

thereabout, " Chan told journalists.

" If there's a ten million population, with 20 percent, two million

would be affected at different stages. And then the severity of the

disease would range from mild to severe, " she added.

Scientists fear that the H5N1 bird flu virus currently affecting parts

of Asia and the Middle East could mutate into a more virulent form

that spreads easily among humans, leading to a global pandemic with

the potential to kill millions.

Everybody is susceptible

The WHO's Director General warned that all people were susceptible and

that no country was going to be fully prepared.

However, nearly all the 193 member nations of the WHO now benefit from

some degree of preparation to tackle a pandemic, compared to about 50

[nations] two years ago, she added.

Chan also underlined the importance of exchanging information on

influenza, saying it might offer an opportunity to stifle an emerging

pandemic.

" We've never tried that in history. We may be seeing a pandemic

unfolding in front of our eyes. So it is incumbent on all of us to try

our very best to catch it as early as possible and to nip it in the

bud. " The WHO has recorded 318 cases of bird flu in humans, of which

192 resulted in deaths, according to the last tally on July 11.

Indonesia tops that list of affected countries this year with 27 cases

and 23 deaths, followed by Egypt with 19 cases and five deaths.

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