Re: Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

[Guest guest]

Is it not the case that this " clustering " of flu' victims, is what

we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far from

Indonesia?

Mike.

-- In Flu , " Lee " <jackalope_lepus@...>

wrote:

>

> Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

> Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans for

the

> first time

> G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

> Wednesday, May 24, 2006

> Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the World

> Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be the

> first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

human.

>

> But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

necessarily

> mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start a

> pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu does.

>

> It is a " definite possibility " that the virus jumped more than

once

> inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for the

WHO

> in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, " It doesn't

look

> like the trend has changed, " she said. " Each case was in very

close

> contact with the previous one. "

>

> In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

human-

> to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were

> between family members who spent hours in close contact and would

> have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets. The

> virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the lungs,

not

> in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does.

>

> The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He is

> believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-old

son,

> who died of the disease May 13.

>

> The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

Sembilang

> in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old woman,

> had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and several

> family members slept in her small room, the health agency said.

She

> died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

taken;

> she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

symptoms.

>

> Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in the

> first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old, died

in

> the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

brother,

> recovered.

>

> Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact with

the

> family have been quarantined or have been treated with Tamiflu, an

> antiviral drug, Cheng said.

>

> The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in humans is

> seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said.

>

> Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking the

> genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is closer

to

> the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been

> infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may have

> made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said the

> health agency's " working hypothesis " was still that it had jumped

> only twice.

>

> An Indonesian health official, according to local press reports,

said

> the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

treated

> with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but refused

> treatment.

> Cheng said the village had " not been as cooperative as we'd like. "

> http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

> file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL

>

[Guest guest]

Hi Mike, That is why I liked this suggestion that the

Flu/message/5382

WHO alert level be raised.

Afterall, we now have people in Asia and conservatives in the USA

saying that the danger of an avian flu pandemic is ended. Avian flu is

still spreading and the more it spreads, the more probable that we will

see a mutation into a human to human transmissible form and other

clusters.

> Is it not the case that this " clustering " of flu' victims, is what

> we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

>

> How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far from

> Indonesia?

>

> Mike.

[Guest guest]

there are currently 4 clusters in Indonesia . Another one emerged this

tuesday, when a 8 year old girl and a 18 year old brother died within 5

hours of each other in the hospital. local tests were postive.

Iran reported a cluster of 5 people this week. 40 ish man and has 27

year old sister died and tested positive on local tests. Another family

member was in a coma at the time. don't know the relationship of the

other two.

For all these stories check some of the avian flu sites where news is

updated 2 times a day, they also have complete listings of clusters.

here are 2 of my favorite

flutracker.com

fluwikie.com

Check the discussion threads.

this list is FAR behind on what's gong on. Please get updated.

Elke

Lee wrote:

Hi Mike, That is why I liked this suggestion that the Flu/message/5382

WHO alert level be raised. Afterall, we now have people in Asia and conservatives in the USA saying that the danger of an avian flu pandemic is ended. Avian flu is still spreading and the more it spreads, the more probable that we will see a mutation into a human to human transmissible form and other clusters.

Is it not the case that this "clustering" of flu' victims, is what we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far from Indonesia?

Mike.

[Guest guest]

I tried both of those websites, neither worked for me.

Doreen

Re: [Flu] Re: Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

there are currently 4 clusters in Indonesia . Another one emerged this tuesday, when a 8 year old girl and a 18 year old brother died within 5 hours of each other in the hospital. local tests were postive.Iran reported a cluster of 5 people this week. 40 ish man and has 27 year old sister died and tested positive on local tests. Another family member was in a coma at the time. don't know the relationship of the other two.For all these stories check some of the avian flu sites where news is updated 2 times a day, they also have complete listings of clusters.here are 2 of my favoriteflutracker.comfluwikie.com Check the discussion threads.this list is FAR behind on what's gong on. Please get updated.ElkeLee wrote:

Hi Mike, That is why I liked this suggestion that the Flu/message/5382

WHO alert level be raised. Afterall, we now have people in Asia and conservatives in the USA saying that the danger of an avian flu pandemic is ended. Avian flu is still spreading and the more it spreads, the more probable that we will see a mutation into a human to human transmissible form and other clusters.

Is it not the case that this "clustering" of flu' victims, is what we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far from Indonesia?

Mike.

[Guest guest]

Turkey already had h2h clusters last year, but they were sustained

passed the H2H phase.

Indonesia has at least 5 clusters with one of them being the largest

thus far with H5N1 with 8 people. There is reasonable evidence that

this particular cluster went H2H2H ... but it is uncertain whether

there are infections further out.

We are still in the " don't panic, wait it out " time.

Kathy in FL

> >

> > Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

> > Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans for

> the

> > first time

> > G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

> > Wednesday, May 24, 2006

> > Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the World

> > Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be the

> > first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

> human.

> >

> > But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

> necessarily

> > mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start a

> > pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu does.

> >

> > It is a " definite possibility " that the virus jumped more than

> once

> > inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for the

> WHO

> > in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, " It doesn't

> look

> > like the trend has changed, " she said. " Each case was in very

> close

> > contact with the previous one. "

> >

> > In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

> human-

> > to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were

> > between family members who spent hours in close contact and would

> > have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets.

The

> > virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the lungs,

> not

> > in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does.

> >

> > The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He is

> > believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-old

> son,

> > who died of the disease May 13.

> >

> > The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

> Sembilang

> > in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old

woman,

> > had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and several

> > family members slept in her small room, the health agency said.

> She

> > died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

> taken;

> > she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

> symptoms.

> >

> > Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in the

> > first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old, died

> in

> > the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

> brother,

> > recovered.

> >

> > Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact with

> the

> > family have been quarantined or have been treated with Tamiflu,

an

> > antiviral drug, Cheng said.

> >

> > The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in humans

is

> > seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said.

> >

> > Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking the

> > genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is

closer

> to

> > the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been

> > infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may

have

> > made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said the

> > health agency's " working hypothesis " was still that it had jumped

> > only twice.

> >

> > An Indonesian health official, according to local press reports,

> said

> > the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

> treated

> > with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but refused

> > treatment.

> > Cheng said the village had " not been as cooperative as we'd

like. "

> > http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

> > file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL

> >

>

[Guest guest]

Doreen,

I don't ahve them booksmarked, but I usually just put them in my

netscape search. Put in a search for "flutracker.com" , you may try

fluwiki.com instead of fluwikie with the e at the end They recently

added another forum, and the main page will take you to it.

Hope that works

Elke

doreen wrote:

I tried both of those websites,

neither worked for me.

Doreen

-----

Original Message -----

From:

Elke

To:

Flu

Sent:

Friday, May 26, 2006 10:19 AM

Subject:

Re: [Flu] Re: Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

there are currently 4 clusters in Indonesia . Another one emerged this

tuesday, when a 8 year old girl and a 18 year old brother died within 5

hours of each other in the hospital. local tests were postive.

Iran reported a cluster of 5 people this week. 40 ish man and has 27

year old sister died and tested positive on local tests. Another family

member was in a coma at the time. don't know the relationship of the

other two.

For all these stories check some of the avian flu sites where news is

updated 2 times a day, they also have complete listings of clusters.

here are 2 of my favorite

flutracker.com

fluwikie.com

Check the discussion threads.

this list is FAR behind on what's gong on. Please get updated.

Elke

Lee wrote:

Hi Mike, That is why I liked this suggestion that the Flu/message/5382

WHO alert level be raised. Afterall, we now have people in Asia and conservatives in the USA saying that the danger of an avian flu pandemic is ended. Avian flu is still spreading and the more it spreads, the more probable that we will see a mutation into a human to human transmissible form and other clusters.

Is it not the case that this "clustering" of flu' victims, is what we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far from Indonesia?

Mike.

[Guest guest]

Hi Lee, I missed this post of yours before posting my last one just

now. I cannot see HOW anybody could possibly say that the risks had

gone now. A question for you, as you are particularly knowledgable

on this (and who would look anywhere else for news on H5N1 when it's

all HERE first?

The question is: How long?

Mike.

> > Is it not the case that this " clustering " of flu' victims, is

what

> > we have been told could be the start of a World-wide pandemic?

> >

> > How soon will other clusters be found in other countries far

from

> > Indonesia?

> >

> > Mike.

>

[Guest guest]

Hi ....

Somebody is certainly keeping us in the dark over here; I hadn't

heard of these Turkish clusters at all!!

We have only JUST found out that there were suspected flu' cases (in

birds) in the West of England, right on my doorstep!

Mike.

> > >

> > > Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

> > > Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans

for

> > the

> > > first time

> > > G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

> > > Wednesday, May 24, 2006

> > > Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the

World

> > > Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be

the

> > > first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

> > human.

> > >

> > > But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

> > necessarily

> > > mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start

a

> > > pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu

does.

> > >

> > > It is a " definite possibility " that the virus jumped more than

> > once

> > > inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for

the

> > WHO

> > > in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, " It doesn't

> > look

> > > like the trend has changed, " she said. " Each case was in very

> > close

> > > contact with the previous one. "

> > >

> > > In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

> > human-

> > > to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were

> > > between family members who spent hours in close contact and

would

> > > have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets.

> The

> > > virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the

lungs,

> > not

> > > in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does.

> > >

> > > The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He

is

> > > believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-

old

> > son,

> > > who died of the disease May 13.

> > >

> > > The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

> > Sembilang

> > > in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old

> woman,

> > > had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and

several

> > > family members slept in her small room, the health agency

said.

> > She

> > > died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

> > taken;

> > > she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

> > symptoms.

> > >

> > > Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in

the

> > > first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old,

died

> > in

> > > the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

> > brother,

> > > recovered.

> > >

> > > Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact

with

> > the

> > > family have been quarantined or have been treated with

Tamiflu,

> an

> > > antiviral drug, Cheng said.

> > >

> > > The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in

humans

> is

> > > seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said.

> > >

> > > Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking

the

> > > genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is

> closer

> > to

> > > the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been

> > > infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may

> have

> > > made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said

the

> > > health agency's " working hypothesis " was still that it had

jumped

> > > only twice.

> > >

> > > An Indonesian health official, according to local press

reports,

> > said

> > > the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

> > treated

> > > with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but

refused

> > > treatment.

> > > Cheng said the village had " not been as cooperative as we'd

> like. "

> > > http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

> > > file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL

> > >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

hi mike,

Europaens are really kept in the dark about this. I was talking to my

brother in germany about this today and I just can't convince him to

prepare for the pandemic.

since WHO has made the announcement of H2H last week, a lot of people

have raised the question of why they never heard of Human to Human

cases before. The CDC has really downplayed the development of hguman

cases in INdonesia. I heard that the director of the CDC was on the

Hannity show ( a conservative talk show host ) and when she said

that the H2H cases were nothing to worry about because " they happened

before", he really put her on the spot. For years we ahve been told

that it is only a disease of birds ( and some mammals).I hope the news

teams keep after this, to inform the public better.

here are the links I neglected before. ALso check Dr. NImans website.

You may not agree with his interpretation of the data, but he does give

the correct data in all the cases.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/

http://www.fluwikie.com/

www.recombinomics.com

Mike wrote:

Hi ....

Somebody is certainly keeping us in the dark over here; I hadn't heard of these Turkish clusters at all!!

We have only JUST found out that there were suspected flu' cases (in birds) in the West of England, right on my doorstep!

Mike.

Fear of ominous leap for bird flu Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans

for

the

first time

G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the

World

Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be

the

first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

human.

But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

necessarily

mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start

a

pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu

does.

It is a "definite possibility" that the virus jumped more than

once

inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for

the

WHO

in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, "It doesn't

look

like the trend has changed," she said. "Each case was in very

close

contact with the previous one." In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

human-

to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were between family members who spent hours in close contact and

would

have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets.

The

virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the

lungs,

not

in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does. The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He

is

believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-

old

son,

who died of the disease May 13. The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

Sembilang

in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old

woman,

had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and

several

family members slept in her small room, the health agency

said.

She

died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

taken;

she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

symptoms.

Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in

the

first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old,

died

in

the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

brother,

recovered. Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact

with

the

family have been quarantined or have been treated with

Tamiflu,

an

antiviral drug, Cheng said. The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in

humans

is

seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said. Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking

the

genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is

closer

to

the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may

have

made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said

the

health agency's "working hypothesis" was still that it had

jumped

only twice. An Indonesian health official, according to local press

reports,

said

the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

treated

with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but

refused

treatment. Cheng said the village had "not been as cooperative as we'd

like."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL

[Guest guest]

Hello Elke.

It certainly does seem to have dropped put of the news of late, but

with immigration, the Da Vinci code film and now with an Earthquake

in Indonesia, H5N1 won't hit the headlines until H2H spreads to

humans in a previously uninfected country.

Here's a question which I noticed on another board: is it the case

that these H2H infections are only amongst members of the same

families, (genetically similar), and not the general population?

Some have said it won't indicate a possible pandemic 'til it gets to

somebody who is totally unrelated to the victims...???

Regards: Mike.

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>Fear of ominous leap for bird flu

> >>>>Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >for

> >

> >

> >>>the

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>first time

> >>>> G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

> >>>>Wednesday, May 24, 2006

> >>>>Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >World

> >

> >

> >>>>Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >the

> >

> >

> >>>>first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>human.

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>necessarily

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >a

> >

> >

> >>>>pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >does.

> >

> >

> >>>>It is a " definite possibility " that the virus jumped more than

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>once

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >the

> >

> >

> >>>WHO

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, " It doesn't

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>look

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>like the trend has changed, " she said. " Each case was in very

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>close

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>contact with the previous one. "

> >>>>

> >>>>In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>human-

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were

> >>>>between family members who spent hours in close contact and

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >would

> >

> >

> >>>>have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets.

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>The

> >>

> >>

> >>>>virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >lungs,

> >

> >

> >>>not

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does.

> >>>>

> >>>>The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >is

> >

> >

> >>>>believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >old

> >

> >

> >>>son,

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>who died of the disease May 13.

> >>>>

> >>>>The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>Sembilang

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>woman,

> >>

> >>

> >>>>had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >several

> >

> >

> >>>>family members slept in her small room, the health agency

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >said.

> >

> >

> >>>She

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>taken;

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>symptoms.

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >the

> >

> >

> >>>>first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old,

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >died

> >

> >

> >>>in

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>brother,

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>recovered.

> >>>>

> >>>>Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >with

> >

> >

> >>>the

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>family have been quarantined or have been treated with

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >Tamiflu,

> >

> >

> >>an

> >>

> >>

> >>>>antiviral drug, Cheng said.

> >>>>

> >>>>The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >humans

> >

> >

> >>is

> >>

> >>

> >>>>seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said.

> >>>>

> >>>>Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >the

> >

> >

> >>>>genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>closer

> >>

> >>

> >>>to

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been

> >>>>infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>have

> >>

> >>

> >>>>made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >the

> >

> >

> >>>>health agency's " working hypothesis " was still that it had

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >jumped

> >

> >

> >>>>only twice.

> >>>>

> >>>>An Indonesian health official, according to local press

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >reports,

> >

> >

> >>>said

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>treated

> >>>

> >>>

> >>>>with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >refused

> >

> >

> >>>>treatment.

> >>>>Cheng said the village had " not been as cooperative as we'd

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>like. "

> >>

> >>

> >>>>http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

> >>>>file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >>>>

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

[Guest guest]

Hi Mike,

From what I have been reading, almost all cases infected were related

by blood, not marriage.

here's an interesting comment made by a neighbor, who took care of one

of the victims, and wondered why she did not get sick

-http://tinyurl.com/j256m

but it is only speculation. right now they don't have enough cases to

make it statistically significant .

WHO says on their last update on INdonesia, May 23 rd-that all people

who got infected had "close, prolonged contact" with an infected

person. they even suggest it may have been spread by coughing !!-so now

I'm really confused by that comment, because is that not the spread we

were all worried about ?? I guess one would have to define "prolonged

contact". I figure health care worker who walks into the sick room

every so often and just does some quick checking , is not exposed the

same way and does not recieve the same viral load as the concerned

mother, who sits at the side of the bed of her child for hours at end.

is that what they mean.? how about a person coughing for several hours

behind you on a 8 hour flight from Asia?? -Still, the developments are

trouble some.-there is a lot of discussion about the 1918 pandemic and

current similarities -I guess in 1918 there were many isolated cases ,

then cluster cases, but nothing to really worry about. But then the

virus turned into a pandemic strain when too many soldiers were put

together in small barracks or in trenches. The earthquake left many

people displaced and they have to be housed in a similar

environment.-I also wonder if any bird flu cases may be missed because

they can barely take care of the injured and those with a cough and

fever probalby won't be viewed as urgent enough.

I think we'll have to really watch the next week or so .

link to the WHO

update-http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

Mike wrote:

Hello Elke.

It certainly does seem to have dropped put of the news of late, but with immigration, the Da Vinci code film and now with an Earthquake in Indonesia, H5N1 won't hit the headlines until H2H spreads to humans in a previously uninfected country.

Here's a question which I noticed on another board: is it the case that these H2H infections are only amongst members of the same families, (genetically similar), and not the general population? Some have said it won't indicate a possible pandemic 'til it gets to somebody who is totally unrelated to the victims...???

Regards: Mike.

Fear of ominous leap for bird flu Fatal disease suspected of making jump among several humans

for

the

first time

G. McNeil Jr., New York Times

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Reacting to the death on Monday of an Indonesian man, the

World

Health Organization said Tuesday that the case appeared to be

the

first example of the avian flu jumping from human to human to

human.

But the health agency quickly cautioned that this did not

necessarily

mean that the virus had mutated into a strain that could start

a

pandemic by jumping rapidly between people as ordinary flu

does.

It is a "definite possibility" that the virus jumped more than

once

inside a family cluster, said Cheng, a spokeswoman for

the

WHO

in Geneva. Although a second jump sounds alarming, "It doesn't

look

like the trend has changed," she said. "Each case was in very

close

contact with the previous one." In the past there have been at least three cases of suspected

human-

to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain of bird flu; all were between family members who spent hours in close contact and

would

have breathed in large amounts of virus-contaminated droplets.

The

virus is known to attach itself to receptors deep in the

lungs,

not

in the nose and throat as seasonal flu does. The man who died Monday was 32 and became sick on May 15. He

is

believed to have caught the flu while caring for his 10-year-

old

son,

who died of the disease May 13. The boy attended a family pork roast in the village of Kubu

Sembilang

in northern Sumatra on April 29. The hostess, a 37-year-old

woman,

had become sick on April 27 and was coughing heavily, and

several

family members slept in her small room, the health agency

said.

She

died on May 4 and was buried without any tissue samples being

taken;

she is presumed to have spread the flu only because of her

symptoms.

Six more family members who were at the barbecue fell sick in

the

first week of May. Five of them, including the 10-year-old,

died

in

the second week of May; only one, the hostess' 25-year-old

brother,

recovered. Thirty-three other people in Kubu Sembilang who had contact

with

the

family have been quarantined or have been treated with

Tamiflu,

an

antiviral drug, Cheng said. The WHO assumes that the incubation time for bird flu in

humans

is

seven to 10 days, longer than that of regular flu, she said. Henry Niman, who runs recombinomics.com, a Web site tracking

the

genetics of flu cases, argues that the incubation period is

closer

to

the two to four days of regular flu, so the boy may have been infected by another family member, meaning that the virus may

have

made three consecutive human-to-human jumps. But Cheng said

the

health agency's "working hypothesis" was still that it had

jumped

only twice. An Indonesian health official, according to local press

reports,

said

the boy's father had run away after falling ill and had been

treated

with Tamiflu. He was later found in the village again but

refused

treatment. Cheng said the village had "not been as cooperative as we'd

like."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?

file=/c/a/2006/05/24/MNGVKJ12361.DTL