Re: Surviving an epidemic living in a suburban area?

[Guest guest]

Hi , There are articles in our files on masks, including making

your own masks. Good luck with the water problem.

[Guest guest]

Get a water filter like the one available at planforflu.com. Stockpile bottled water, have clean containers (and preservative) available to fill with tap water while it is still safe, get crank flashlights and radios and lots of candles and matches, get a generator, get a camp stove or fondue pot and sterno, have a gas and charcoal grill available for cooking, and have a fire extinguisher. You can get more detailed info at fluwikie.com or planforpandemic.com

I live in town so these are the things I am doing!

Blessings, Tamarin

[Flu] Surviving an epidemic living in a suburban area?

Hi all;We have recently moved into town due to our home in the country not having water and not being able to develop a well.Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and epidemic consists of moving to "the country", and completly isolating from any contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the city?If we had water out at our old house it would have been perfect for living with no electricity, etc, but in town..Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing when you live in a town?Thanks in advance,

[Guest guest]

Some great ideas, Tamarin, thanks for the info.

What will you use your generator for(I dont know much about them,

and what you can power with them).

>

> Get a water filter like the one available at planforflu.com.

Stockpile bottled water, have clean containers (and preservative)

available to fill with tap water while it is still safe, get crank

flashlights and radios and lots of candles and matches, get a

generator, get a camp stove or fondue pot and sterno, have a gas and

charcoal grill available for cooking, and have a fire extinguisher.

You can get more detailed info at fluwikie.com or planforpandemic.com

>

> I live in town so these are the things I am doing!

>

> Blessings, Tamarin

>

>

> [Flu] Surviving an epidemic living in a suburban

area?

>

> Hi all;

> We have recently moved into town due to our home in the country

not

> having water and not being able to develop a well.

>

> Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and epidemic

> consists of moving to " the country " , and completly isolating from

any

> contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the city?

>

> If we had water out at our old house it would have been perfect

for

> living with no electricity, etc, but in town..

>

> Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing

when you

> live in a town?

>

> Thanks in advance,

>

>

[Guest guest]

I do not believe that there will be a pandemic that people in urban

areas cannot survive by taking the right actions and working

together. There many indeed one day be a pandemic in north america,

but I highly doubt that it will involve a 'break down' of society

that we see in the movies (like in 28 days and films like that).

Rather, I think there could be a lot of deaths and serious economic

issues, but I think that there would continue to be order - even

without martial law.

People talk about it being ideal to live 'in the country' if the

sort of nightmare scenerio actually happens, like it does in the

movies. Well, I would say that if that happens that people who live

in rural areas would be just as vulnerable. They would simply have

a little more time. To escape the situation that would be the

total " worst case " , I think you would have to live in a totally

remote area, like maybe on Baffin Island or Northern Alaska. Just

because one lives an hours drive from town would not help them all

that much in the final analysis.

Our ability to map these sorts of viruses is greater than it ever

was. I am certain that we can stop any outbreak. The solution is

not to be found in 'holing up', but rather in people working

together as a communities and helping one and other.

>

> Hi all;

> We have recently moved into town due to our home in the country

not

> having water and not being able to develop a well.

>

> Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and epidemic

> consists of moving to " the country " , and completly isolating from

any

> contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the city?

>

> If we had water out at our old house it would have been perfect

for

> living with no electricity, etc, but in town..

>

> Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing

when you

> live in a town?

>

> Thanks in advance,

>

>

[Guest guest]

The problem with moving to the country, is that everyone else will

want to do that too!

Mike.

> >

> > Hi all;

> > We have recently moved into town due to our home in the country

> not

> > having water and not being able to develop a well.

> >

> > Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and epidemic

> > consists of moving to " the country " , and completly isolating

from

> any

> > contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the

city?

> >

> > If we had water out at our old house it would have been perfect

> for

> > living with no electricity, etc, but in town..

> >

> > Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing

> when you

> > live in a town?

> >

> > Thanks in advance,

> >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

Thanks Pete;

A note of optimism is always good to hear.

>

> I do not believe that there will be a pandemic that people in urban

> areas cannot survive by taking the right actions and working

>

[Guest guest]

There is a thin line between optimism and denial, Pete. The reports

of fights in the long lines at the gas stations in Hawaii should give

you some pause. This was an extremely minor emergency but a lot of

people went over the edge because they thought that they would not be

able to get their daily dose of ding dongs and Marlboros. Try to

imagine what it will be like with no food or cigarettes or booze on

any shelves in any stores and almost no one working in any capacity

because coming into contact with other people is an almost certain

death sentence. Order? Ha! Panic beyond what anyone has ever seen

is more like it. The law of the jungle will be the operative law.

People without access to food or water or cigarettes or booze or

crack or heroin? Get a grip, man! This will be no orderly waiting

in line society. I hate to sound alarmist, but if this virus becomes

as transmissible as ordinary flu and retains its high pathogenicity

(no guarantee that it will), then forget society as we know it. It

will be bar the door, quite literally.

Now maybe you think that the virus won't become a) that transmissible

and that deadly, and that could be true. If so, we might catch a

break and _might_ not have total collaps. But if it does, it is

naive to think that there will be anything remotely like order in the

cities for a very long time.

> >

> > Hi all;

> > We have recently moved into town due to our home in the country

> not

> > having water and not being able to develop a well.

> >

> > Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and epidemic

> > consists of moving to " the country " , and completly isolating from

> any

> > contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the city?

> >

> > If we had water out at our old house it would have been perfect

> for

> > living with no electricity, etc, but in town..

> >

> > Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing

> when you

> > live in a town?

> >

> > Thanks in advance,

> >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

You make some very good points. And, yes, part of me feels that we

will never see this virus become what we fear the worst. But even

those researchers who are the most optimistic about the bird flu

virus tend to always end their statements by saying something

like " but one day there will eventually be a truly devestating

pandemic and it will be horrible "

But I just think that the survival mentality is not necessarily the

right path. Those folks clamouring for their luxery goods are

precicely what I would hope could be headed off by sound planning by

communities as a whole. If every town or county had some plan it

might prevent some of those problems if indeed this one was 'the big

one'. But there's just no way to be sure, so I am not sure that the

best use of our energies and resources is would be to leave our

homes and head for the hills.

But that thought leaves me with a question that I would like to as

everyone here:

Of course, few people feel sure that this will be a gigantic global

pandemic. But many are justifiably worried. So my question is:

what events would have to happen to convince you that this virus was

headed for the worst case scenerio?

Thanks

Pete

> > >

> > > Hi all;

> > > We have recently moved into town due to our home in the

country

> > not

> > > having water and not being able to develop a well.

> > >

> > > Most of the stuff that I have read to help survive and

epidemic

> > > consists of moving to " the country " , and completly isolating

from

> > any

> > > contact. Is there a way to survive an epidemic living in the

city?

> > >

> > > If we had water out at our old house it would have been

perfect

> > for

> > > living with no electricity, etc, but in town..

> > >

> > > Does anyone have any ideas, thoughts suggestions for preparing

> > when you

> > > live in a town?

> > >

> > > Thanks in advance,

> > >

> > >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

If it is not this virus that becomes a pandemic then it will be another

one that will become a plague. This is simply a result of

globalization. There is too much poverty and too many live in filthy

conditions. Read Laurie Garrett's " Betrayal of Trust. " Guess I should

add her name and the books that she has written to our site description.

Incidentally, Garrett writes that when Bubonic Plague was spotted in

India in the 70's, all the private doctors fled the nation, leaving the

public health doctors alone to cope. So I see no reason why we should

expect that US medical personnel will stay in the States to face a

pandemic. Expect that medical personnel will flee and leave pandemic

victims to cope or die on their own.

[Guest guest]

No, heading for the hills is not the answer unless you already have a place in the hills stocked with what you need to survive for a year. Community planning, education, and preparation? Good idea, but it's not in the cards it seems. People don't want to hear about a possible impending disaster that would change their lives forever. Hell, I live in San Francisco and we don't even have neighborhood planning and preparation for in the event of a massive earthquake, and almost everyone here knows that it is coming. So, don't hold your breath. And for that matter, don't bother talking about a coming pandemic to even your best friends and family if you don't want to be considered the nutball of the family. Just go about making your plans for yourself and your immediate family. You will not get support from anyone else except from those on lists like this.

How to tell when this virus is headed for the worst case scenario? Well, there is no real progression you can watch other than the mutation rate of the virus and the spread of the disease to other animals who can also harbor human influenza and can swap genetic material between the two. And if that is the criteria, you better raise your concern level right now because avian flu is now present in the pigs of Indonesia and China. And pigs are the animals cited as the most likely to produce a human version of avian flu. They are suspected of having that precise role in the creation of the 1918 Spanish flu. And since Indonesia is also the site of widespread H5N1 in fowl and is also the site of H2H2H transmission last May, and since China has historically been the place pandemics originate, I think that you can be justified in being concerned right now. The real question is how to tell when it finally goes pandemic in humans, because it could be a matter of no more than a few weeks or even as short a time as a few days between that time and the time when your next door neighbor gets sick and dies of avian flu. And there may be no warning at all that the pandemic is on your doorstep. If the virus gains the necessary mutations in a city like Hong Kong or Jakarta, for example, and one of the first carriers hops a jet to London or San Francisco, forget it. Within no time at all, the world will have a roaring pandemic on its hands. So, wait around if you want, but I continue to make and upgrade my preparations.

The only other thing I should point out is that the normal flu season is a time when human flu is in the air and is therefore a time when cross-breeding with avian flu is more likely. So, December through March might be more dangerous than other times.

A few references on the pig problem:

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/may2705avflu.html

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/aug202004pigs.html

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_08_20/en/index.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05130504/H5N1_Confirmed_Swine.html

[Guest guest]

The city has a pandemic plan, but it does not include educating the

populace on the nature and seriousness of the threat, Nor does it

prepare the popluace for living for an extended period of time

without access to food, water, or utilities. It does not include

organizing neighborhoods and having required block meetings. The

plan has no provisions for near-100% absenteeism in all city

departments. The plan has no provisions for when truck drivers stop

driving the highways, causing an end to deliveries of food and gas

and everything else to which people are addicted. The plan has no

provision for everyday commerce without the benefit of ATM machines

or credit card readers or bank tellers. The plan has no provision

for providing pharmaceuticals to the people who need them. The plan

has no provision for controlling the armed desperate people who will

roam the city in search of food, cigarettes, ammunition, liquor, and

drugs.

The plan assumes 35% absenteeism, which is absurd. The official

advice is don't go to work if you are feeling ill. When scores of

people in your workplace are getting sick and most of them are dying,

you are not going back to that workplace if you have a brain in your

head, even if you are feeling great. This reality will dawn on almost

everyone very rapidly. And the ones it does not dawn on will

probably die as a result.

If there is an illness in your city that kills 60% of those infected

and it is easily transmitted through the air and on doornobs, and no

one has immunity to it, you will probably get it unless you avoid all

human contact! But the plan does not provide for total human

isolation. And the required isolation is NOT for a few days or a few

weeks. The 1918 flu took a year to die out. The second wave,

several months after the first one, was by far the worst. Why should

this one be any different?

No plan will ever adequately provide for a pandemic of such

magnitude. Just as the federal government says that the states will

have to fend for themselves, and the states say that the cities will

have to fend for themselves, the city should be telling you that you

will have to fend for yourself and then show you how.

Prepare, or prepare to die. That is the bottom line.

> No, heading for the hills is not the answer unless you

already have a place in the hills stocked with what you need to

survive for a year. Community planning, education, and

preparation? Good idea, but it's not in the cards it seems. People

don't want to hear about a possible impending disaster that would

change their lives forever. Hell, I live in San Francisco and we

don't even have neighborhood planning and preparation for in the

event of a massive earthquake, and almost everyone here knows that it

is coming. So, don't hold your breath. And for that matter, don't

bother talking about a coming pandemic to even your best friends and

family if you don't want to be considered the nutball of the family.

Just go about making your plans for yourself and your immediate

family. You will not get support from anyone else except from those

on lists like this.

>

> How to tell when this virus is headed for the worst case

scenario? Well, there is no real progression you can watch other

than the mutation rate of the virus and the spread of the disease to

other animals who can also harbor human influenza and can swap

genetic material between the two. And if that is the criteria, you

better raise your concern level right now because avian flu is now

present in the pigs of Indonesia and China. And pigs are the animals

cited as the most likely to produce a human version of avian flu.

They are suspected of having that precise role in the creation of the

1918 Spanish flu. And since Indonesia is also the site of widespread

H5N1 in fowl and is also the site of H2H2H transmission last May, and

since China has historically been the place pandemics originate, I

think that you can be justified in being concerned right now. The

real question is how to tell when it finally goes pandemic in humans,

because it could be a matter of no more than

> a few weeks or even as short a time as a few days between that

time and the time when your next door neighbor gets sick and dies of

avian flu. And there may be no warning at all that the pandemic is

on your doorstep. If the virus gains the necessary mutations in a

city like Hong Kong or Jakarta, for example, and one of the first

carriers hops a jet to London or San Francisco, forget it. Within no

time at all, the world will have a roaring pandemic on its hands.

So, wait around if you want, but I continue to make and upgrade my

preparations.

>

> The only other thing I should point out is that the normal flu

season is a time when human flu is in the air and is therefore a time

when cross-breeding with avian flu is more likely. So, December

through March might be more dangerous than other times.

>

> A few references on the pig problem:

>

>

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/may27

05avflu.html

>

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/aug20

2004pigs.html

> http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_08_20/en/index.html

>

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05130504/H5N1_Confirmed_Swine.html

>

>

>

>

>

>

> . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind

don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

> . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke

Ellington

> . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

>